(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bankers are poised for another bumper quarter. 

Fees from advising on mergers and underwriting stocks and bonds could be up about 35% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, JPMorgan Co-President Daniel Pinto said Wednesday at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference. That jump would make this quarter one of the best ever for the firm’s investment bankers in a year of record dealmaking. 

The investment-banking pipeline “looks quite strong into next year across M&A, debt and equity,” Pinto said. “How is it going to play out? Difficult to know, because I think it will be very linked to the path of interest rates. So we have a smooth path of normalization of interest rates, most likely that pipeline will be executed and probably we’ll have a good year in banking. If there is a very volatile and very disruptive increase in interest rates, probably a couple of markets will suffer and it will be more difficult.”

On the trading side, results in the current period will likely be down about 10%, Pinto said, noting that the fourth quarter of last year was the unit’s best in history. Results will probably be flat in equities trading and down in fixed income, he said. 

“Probably we’re going to see some normalization next year across fixed income and equities,” Pinto said. “Some of the normalization, particularly in the more macro businesses, has already happened.”

Also in Pinto’s remarks:

  • Inflation is the “most important issue at the moment,” Pinto said. Still, his central scenario is that Federal Reserve actions and components pushing inflation up, such as supply-chain issues, are going to converge in a way that allows the business cycle to continue.
  • JPMorgan’s expenses will go up next year as the firm continues to invest in its businesses, Pinto said. One area of particular opportunity is payments, where Pinto said he’s very focused.

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