Larry Berman

Berman's Call

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The tragedy of war is difficult from a human toll perspective. I recall having tears in my eyes trying to give investment advice in the days and weeks following Sept. 11, 2001. The lessons of past tragedies remind us to keep focus on your longer-term investment goals and looking for opportunities to enter positions that will likely provide longer-term enhanced returns. Our natural tendency is to try and trade the noise of the day and what’s moving now rather than considering our longer-term goals.

Trying to capture what upside might be left in the spike in energy markets could end badly for most unless you are the nimblest of traders. I sold my overweight in energy stocks last week. Today, it’s clear I was a bit early on that call. There is nothing wrong with chasing current noise, it’s a style thing, but the prudent investor should be looking for longer-term opportunity when investors are selling for emotional reasons. In no particular order, longer-term bullish themes we like to outperform are in the areas of technology and healthcare and other sectors that will benefit consumption. Those proceeds from selling energy stocks last week will be deployed looking for longer-term themes where there is strong selling. I may be early on some of these too.

• Clean Energy (including nuclear) (ICLN, URA)
• Robotics and AI (ROBO)
• Cybersecurity (CIBR)
• Biotech (XBI)
• Engineering and infrastructure (repair and development) (PAVE)
• Agriculture (MOO)
• Clean water and water utilities (FIW)
• Software (IGV)
• Emerging markets (IEMG, FLIN, FLKR, VNM, THD)

For most, ETFs are the easiest way to get broad exposure. But you do need to do your homework to make sure you are getting the exposure you want. Not all indexes are created equal. Buying a broad emerging market ETF like IEMG, has exposure to Russia in it. On Jan. 1, the IEMG ETF had 3.21 per cent exposure to Russian equities. When markets stopped trading Russian equities last week, that weight was down to 1.19 per cent and for the most part, the ETFs are valuing those holdings at less than that weight, but the stocks and ADR/GDRs are not trading. Index providers have said that Russia will be removed from indexes this week.

This week on our Spring 2022 virtual Berman’s Call roadshow, we will take a look through some of these ETFs at where some of the developing opportunities might be. Join us weekly (Thursday 7 p.m. ET) through April 28. Keep an eye on The Investor’s Guide to Thriving website for more information on how to sign up for notifications. The theme will be Berman’s Call deep dives. More in-depth looks on combining fundamentals and technicals to mine for investment ideas. Should be a great series. If you have learned a few things over the years from our educational segments, please consider supporting one of my favourite charities. Dementia and Alzheimer’s research at the Baycrest Hospital/Rotman Research Institute is world class. Each year I raise money for this cause and match all BNN Bloomberg viewer donations. In the past nine years we have raised almost $500,000 thanks to you. Please consider sponsoring here.

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