Kim Bolton, president and portfolio manager of Black Swan Dexteritas
Focus: Technology stocks

MARKET OUTLOOK

Through the end of July, the U.S. stock market indexes are off to their fastest start in 20 years. While the stock market wall of worry remains in place, most of the indicators regarding the economy are still looking positive for the bulls (GDP continues to churn away at the upper end of its 2010-2019 range, measures of consumer confidence are near all-time highs and employment growth remains respectable). However, the bears stress worries over the yield curve, escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and unfavourable outcomes for other geopolitical risks such as Brexit, North Korea, and the U.S.-Iran conflict. With summer vacations in full swing (even the U.S. Congress is on a five-week recess), the spike in volatility is not surprising; any incoming data related to these "wall of worry’" issues results in price movement exaggerations. Your BSD Global Tech Hedge Fund is defensively positioned in the short term, with an overweight short equity derivatives position protecting our well-earned gains so far this year. On market pullbacks, we will respect our stock and ETF entry levels, and likewise with exaggerated market advances, we will adhere to our take profit discipline.

There was no fanfare in July, the 121st month of economic growth, which makes this expansion the longest in U.S. history. However, as the trade war continues, the stock market rumbles and bond yields rise and fall, investors’ economic outlook have turned increasingly negative. It’s evident the global economy is showing signs of strain. The probability of a global recession within the next 18 months is now significant. Your BSD portfolio management team has purposely shifted our portfolio from a predominantly long bullish position (from 2013 to 2018), to a transitionary stance (with an overweight cash posture and short equity indexes position, over the past nine months). Eventually when we clearly enter a recession, your BSD portfolio management team will be ready to capitalize on a predominantly short-biased portfolio.

UPDATE: Sold position in Tableau at $169.34 after it was acquired by Salesforce on June 10, 2019.

TOP PICKS

Kim Bolton's Top Picks

Kim Bolton, president and portfolio manager at Black Swan Dexteritas, shares his top picks: Alibaba, Zillow Group and Alteryx.

ALIBABA (BABA:UN)

ZILLOW GROUP (Z:UW)

ALTERYX (AYX:UN)

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
BABA Y Y Y
Z Y Y Y
AYX Y Y Y

 

PAST PICKS: AUG. 29, 2018

Kim Bolton's Past Picks

Kim Bolton, president and portfolio manager at Black Swan Dexteritas, reviews his past picks: Red Hat, Twitter and Activision Blizzard.

RED HAT (RHT:UN)
Acquired by IBM on July 9, 2019.

  • Then: $147.80
  • Now: $187.71
  • Return: 27%
  • Total return: 27%

TWITTER (TWTR:UN)

  • Then: $35.35
  • Now: $41.89
  • Return: 19%
  • Total return: 19%

ACTIVISION BLIZZARD (ATVI:UW)

  • Then: $74.91
  • Now: $49.92
  • Return: -33%
  • Total return: -33%

Total return average: 4%

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
RHT N N N
TWTR N N N
ATVI N N N

 

FUND PROFILE

Blackswan Dexteritas Global Tech Fund
Performance as of: July 31, 2019

  • 1 month: 1.8% fund, -0.7% index
  • 1 year: 2.6% fund, -1.4% index
  • 3 years: 10.2% fund, 3.9% index

INDEX: TSX.
Returns are based on reinvested dividends, net of fees and annualized.

TOP HOLDINGS

  1. Alphabet: 5.4%
  2. Amazon: 5.1%
  3. Visa: 4.8%
  4. Infineon Technologies: 4.6%
  5. Ericsson : 4.5%

WEBSITE: www.bsdmi.com