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Jul 29, 2019

Loonie edges higher amid 'interesting juncture' on currency’s future

Loonie sits near one-month low

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The Canadian dollar broke its six-session losing streak on Monday, barely doing so after teetering around one-month lows earlier in the day.

The Canadian dollar was up 0.07 per cent at an even 76 cents U.S. as of Monday at 4 p.m. ET, recovering from as low as 75.85 in the early morning. The recent weakness comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday amid persistent global trade tension. 

“There’s still a lot uncertainty as to how this whole trade thing pans out globally and how that affects Canada. It does actually hit Canada more than the [United] States,” Andrew Pyle, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager with The Pyle Group, Scotia Wealth Management, told BNN Bloomberg Monday.

“So I think you see investors paring back some of the gains and taking a more defensive stance as we go into the week.”

Pyle’s remarks come on the heels of a recent 80-cent loonie call from Olivier Korber, a foreign exchange derivatives strategist at Societe Generale. Korber cited diverging monetary policy in the U.S. and Canada, and also said the economic impacts of tariffs would have a greater effect on growth and prices for the U.S. and China than on this country.    

Prominent Canadian economist David Rosenberg shut down that argument on BNN Bloomberg last week, arguing “there’s no catalyst” to cause the loonie to march higher.

“I think this is sort of an interesting juncture in which to talk about whether foreign exchange forecasters are any good at their jobs,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Monday.

“The reality is that the markets try to anticipate things, and when they do in the FX markets, they often do before the foreign exchange strategists talk about it.”

Without a major catalyst such as a spike in oil prices, Schamotta said he doesn’t see the loonie surging past the 77-cent mark against its U.S. counterpart.

The loonie gained momentum earlier this month, climbing toward 77 cents U.S. after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins at a July 10 news conference gave no indication they’re in a rush to cut rates.

Simultaneous commentary from U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled rates could be heading lower south of the border.