Teal Linde, Manager, Linde Equity Fund
Focus: North American stocks
Top picks: Blue Owl Capital, Amazon.com, Pinterest
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Speculative hotspots exist, yet overall sentiment is neutral but caution is still advised.
Investor speculation in the U.S. has intensified markedly across multiple fronts, fuelled by social media, artificial intelligence (AI) hype, and leveraged instruments. Retail-driven “meme‑stock” trades have surged anew, with names like Opendoor, Kohl’s, and GoPro experiencing explosive gains without traditional financial catalysts - Opendoor climbed 239 per cent in a month - underscoring how online chatter can override fundamentals.
Simultaneously, the AI frenzy has inspired a proliferation of leveraged and inverse single‑stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to AI champions like Nvidia and Palantir; over 112 such ETFs have launched in 2025 alone. Echoing earlier caution, a study from MIT warns of a potential “AI bubble,“noting that nearly 95 per cent of surveyed enterprises investing in generative AI pilot programs report no measurable returns - a dynamic reminiscent of the dot‑com era.
Furthermore, the reopening of the initial public offering (IPO) market - with high‑growth names like Klarna, Gemini, and Figure Technology lining up to go public - signals renewed speculative appetite amid easing geopolitical jitters. Together, these trends point to a speculative surge rooted in hype, momentum trades, and innovative financial vehicles, raising fresh concerns about valuation disconnects and market stability.
However, despite all this speculative furor, the market arguably could drift higher as overall investor sentiment is hovering around neutral. This is largely due to the political polarization within the market; Americans are peering at their investment portfolios through their red and blue goggles resulting in a nearly 50 per cent optimism divided between Republicans and Democrats compared to 13 per cent during George W. Bush’s presidency.
Expectations of interest rate cuts are also supportive of a drift higher. However, valuations are stretched to historically high levels, so caution is warranted when investing new money into the market.
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TOP PICKS:
Blue Owl Capital (OWL NYSE)
Blue Owl is an industry leader riding three secular waves in the investment world: The growth of private credit (of which direct lending is the main activity), the growing opportunity to capitalize on sale and lease back transactions with investment grade companies seeking to monetize their real estate assets and the opening up of alternative investments previously reserved for institutional investors to the untapped retail investor market.
Benefitting Blue Owl’s largest private credit segment, the average institutional investor’s allocation to private credit today is estimated to be around four per cent to five per cent of total assets.
Industry expectations are for the allocation to double to an average of 10 per cent in the next five years with the money largely coming from the private equity allocation which has lost some favour due to being less liquid and requiring longer time commitments.
Blue Owl offers a five per cent dividend yield, and a double-digit top line growth profile, with EPS expected to return to double digit growth next year, while trading at 22 times 2025 expected earnings.
Amazon.com (AMZN NASD)
Amazon is a dominant player across multiple high-growth sectors, including e-commerce, cloud computing, digital advertising, and AI infrastructure. Its core e-commerce business, while mature in North America, continues to scale globally and generate strong free cash flow.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a market leader in cloud computing, with high margins and mission-critical services for enterprises, supporting structural tailwinds in digital transformation.
Its fast-growing digital advertising segment also benefits from high-margin monetization of its massive retail traffic. Operational efficiency is improving due to regionalized fulfillment and automation, boosting margins. With a disciplined approach to costs and a refocus on profitability under CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon is transitioning from a growth-at-all-costs model to one that balances innovation with shareholder returns.
Amazon offers a unique combination of scale, diversification, and innovation, making it a compelling long-term investment in the global digital economy. While revenue growth has slowed to 11 per cent, earnings are growing faster due the company’s more profitable and faster growing AWS and advertising businesses becoming a larger portion of total revenues.
Pinterest (PINS NASD)
Pinterest is an attractive growth at a reasonable price stock where new management has made noticeable improvements over the last three years. The company’s revenues are growing at about a 15 per cent annual rate while trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) of 21 based on 2025 expected earnings per share (EPS). Earnings are growing even faster. Pinterest is a visual search and discovery platform in which users explore their interests, seek creative inspiration, and browse items they may want to purchase.
Women make up ~2/3 of its 500 million+ user base, while Gen Z users are >40 per cent of users and the fastest growing user cohort. Spurred by new management and their leveraging of AI and machine learnings, the company is increasing user engagement by making its content more relevant and more shoppable, while at the same time being able to increase its ad load.
In terms of revenue growth potential, Pinterest currently earns an average revenue per user (ARPU) of US$9 from Americans and Canadians, US$1.38 from Europeans, and US$0.19 from the rest of the world. Having 80 per cent of their users in Europe and rest of the world, where monetization is in the early innings, underscores just how much ARPU, and total company revenue, upside exists for Pinterest. Global monthly active users recently grew by 10 per cent to 570 million.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| OWL NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| AMZN NASD | Y | Y | Y |
| PINS NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: SEPTEMBER 9, 2024
ALPHABET (GOOGL NASD)
Then: US$148.71
Now: US$237.78
Return: 60%
Total Return: 60%
DELTA AIR LINES (DAL NYSE)
Then: US$43.68
Now: US$61.29
Return: 40%
Total Return: 42%
ENSIGN ENERGY (ESI TSX)
Then: $2.56
Now: $2.11
Return: -18%
Total Return: -18%
Total Return Average: 28%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL NASD | Y | Y | Y |
| DAL NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| ESI TSX | Y | Y | Y |
