Kim Bolton’s Top Picks November 5, 2025

Kim Bolton, President & Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas

Focus: Technology stocks

Top picks: Applied Materials, Panasonic, Tesla

MARKET OUTLOOK:

The question du jour is - Are stock markets overvalued, especially AI stocks?

The BSD team will answer this quandary through fundamental, technical, and capital flow lenses. Fundamentally, AI stocks are not overvalued if you believe, as we do. The AI ecosystem is discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity.

Technically, we are cautious because the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are currently between two and three standard deviations above their respective 50 day moving averages, which historically means that investors should be more inclined to sell than buy.

Finally, capital flows matter a lot. In the first half of 2025, much of the world decided the U.S. currency carried some risk that they wanted to avoid, but in the last three months, the U.S. currency got its mojo back and the asset class that is most popular is AI equity.

The bottom line is, stock markets will consolidate or correct in the short term, but in the medium to long term, the AI ecosystem will outperform other asset classes as the tech vendors and technology end-users prove this new age of prosperity will drive big gains in productivity.

While the market searches for the next fundamental catalyst, technical signal, and changes in capital flows, your BSD team will continue to trim those securities that are achieving their respective intrinsic values, and buy those technology growth stocks that exhibit longer, more lucrative investment runways. The hedging overlay will always be an important tool to protect your capital in bearish markets, and also an important tool to be ‘dialed down’ in bullish markets.

Your BSD Team is proud to be your investment ‘eyes and ears’ in the technology arena.

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TOP PICKS:

Applied Materials (AMAT NASD)

Applied Materials is an American corporation that supplies equipment, services, and software for the manufacture of semiconductor chips for electronics, flat panel displays for computers, smartphones and televisions, and solar products.

Products:

• Manufacturing equipment for fabricating semiconductor chips or integrated circuits using a variety of technologies (Epitaxy, chemical vapor deposition, ion implantation, etching etc.)
• Integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity (factory automation software and upgrades)
• Equipment for manufacturing (LCDs, OLEDs, and other display technologies)

Applied Materials has introduced the Vistara wafer manufacturing platform, a significant advancement in chipmaking technology. This platform offers:

1) Flexibility: It accommodates various chamber types, sizes, and configurations from Applied Materials and its partners, making it highly adaptable.

2) Intelligence: Equipped with sensors, it leverages Applied AIx™ software platform to accelerate R&D, reduce time to market, and optimize production output and yield in high-volume manufacturing.

3) Sustainability: The platform is designed to help customers meet sustainability goals by reducing energy consumption, chemicals, and construction materials used in fabs.

Markets: Targets the semiconductor industry, display industry, and consumer electronics industry.

Panasonic (PCRHY ADR)

Panasonic is a Japan-based holding company overseeing a diversified group focused on consumer and “lifestyle” appliances, B2B systems, industrial components/automation, and energy (notably lithium-ion batteries).

Since 2022 it has run a holding-company structure with operating companies aligned to reportable segments.

In FY2025 (year ended Mar 31, 2025) it deconsolidated Panasonic Automotive Systems (PAS) after selling a majority stake to Apollo, with PAS now an equity-method affiliate.

Products and markets include:

• Lifestyle (Panasonic Corporation): home appliances, HVAC (air-con, ventilation, hot-water), cold-chain/refrigeration, lighting and electrical equipment—sold to consumers and commercial customers worldwide.
• Connect (Panasonic Connect): B2B “connected” solutions across distribution/logistics, entertainment (broadcast/pro AV), public sector, avionics, and manufacturing; also houses supply-chain software leader Blue Yonder.
• Industry (Panasonic Industry): electronic components (capacitors, sensors, relays), factory automation and related modules serving automotive, industrial and electronics OEMs. (Segment structure per IR.)
• Energy (Panasonic Energy): cylindrical EV batteries and energy-storage batteries; major customers include Tesla and other automakers.

Recent news & developments:

• Supply-chain software expansion: Blue Yonder (Panasonic Connect) acquired One Network Enterprises (~US$839 million) to build a multi-enterprise, real-time supply-chain platform.
• U.S. battery capacity ramp: Panasonic Energy began mass production at its new EV battery factory in De Soto, Kansas, targeting ~32 GWh/year; broader coverage highlighted the plant’s scale and North American supply-chain role.
• Restructuring & headcount actions (May 2025): Company announced a program including ~10,000 job cuts and other measures to lift profitability, while guiding strong profit growth for the energy business.
• Customer & materials ecosystem: Panasonic Energy updated offtake/commercial arrangements, e.g., with NMG for anode materials (Oct 31, 2025).

Tesla (TSLA NASD)

Tesla is an electric vehicle and clean energy company, focusing on manufacturing electric cars, battery energy storage, solar panels, and related products.

Products and markets include:

• Electric vehicles: The company’s primary focus, including models like Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck.
• Energy generation and storage: Including solar panels and battery storage solutions.
• Autonomous Driving Technology: Development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities.
• AI and Software: Working on ride-hailing functionality and expanding AI infrastructure.

Recent News:

• BYD announces partnership with DeepSeek for autonomous driving systems, intensifying competition while Tesla awaits Chinese regulatory approval.
• Model Y Juniper refresh confirmed for May 2025 launch with new features including 8-inch rear touchscreen, ventilated seats, and 353-mile range.
• Trump administration imposes new 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum, potentially increasing Tesla’s production costs.

PAST PICKS: NOVEMBER 20, 2024

Arista Networks (ANET NYSE) – 4-for-1 stock split December 4, 2024

Then: US$381.71

Now: US$144.89

Return: 52%

Total Return: 52%

Snowflake (SNOW NYSE)

Then: US$129.12

Now: US$264.41

Return: 105%

Total Return: 105%

Datadog (DDOG NASD)

Then: US$135.45

Now: US$157.14

Return: 16%

Total Return: 16%

Total Return Average: 58%