David Burrows’ Top Picks for Nov. 20, 2025

David Burrows, CEO and CIO, Barometer Capital Management

Focus: North American large cap stocks

Top picks: Tamarack Valley Energy, GE Aerospace, CASH

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Over the past few months, equity markets have seen narrowing market leadership (breadth) which is an indicator of increased market risk.

In particular, it appears that investors have been rotating from more crowded sectors and themes to those that are less crowded and in some cases have lower weights in the index making active portfolio management more important.

Yields on long term sovereign bonds have remained higher than many expected which puts pressure on companies that require financing and puts pressure on high multiple growth stocks.

Barometer has focused portfolios in international markets which are outperforming U.S. equities and more inflation oriented sectors including large banks, industrials, energy and materials stand out as most resilient currently.

While Barometer is currently targeting key themes and sectors that have been resilient, the portfolio team has been more cautious, pairing positions showing weaker relative performance and is holding an elevated cash weight given the narrowing market internals.

This not only reduces portfolio risk should prices weaken but creates flexibility and opportunity to add new positions should conditions begin to improve.

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TOP PICKS:

Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE TO)

Our Investment Thesis (November 2025)Tamarack Valley Energy is one of the most exciting pure-play opportunities in the prolific Clearwater oil formation in Western Canada.

The company now gets more than 90 per cent of its production from this ultra-low-decline, high-return heavy oil play, and management is aggressively shifting new wells to the innovative “waterflood” technique much earlier in the life cycle than the rest of the industry.

Early waterflood drives faster pressure support, higher ultimate recovery, and — most importantly for investors — a dramatically better free cash flow profile through lower decline rates and reduced maintenance capital.

We expect Tamarack’s production to grow five to 10 per cent per year over the next several years while spending well inside cash flow. Average netbacks are strong at around $40 per barrel even in today’s price environment, and the company is now producing close to 68,000 boe/d.

Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly and disciplined: roughly 60 per cent of free cash flow is being used in 2025 to rapidly pay down debt (net debt expected below $500 million soon), while the remaining 40 per cent funds base dividends, share buybacks, and modest strategic growth.

An ongoing 60 per cent+ expansion of the waterflood program should deliver another big leg of oil-recovery upside in 2025–2027, with ~22 per cent of Clearwater production under waterflood by year-end 2025 (up from just 8 per cent in 2024).

The result: debt has already dropped nearly 20 per cent since the start of the year, excess free cash flow is accelerating, and the base dividend is growing at a 19 per cent three-year CAGR alongside aggressive buybacks.

Tamarack offers a rare combination of visible growth, falling leverage, and rapidly rising shareholder returns — all in one of the lowest-risk, highest-return oil plays in North America. This is a core holding for us in the Canadian small/mid-cap energy space.

GE Aerospace (GE NYSE)

Our investment thesis (November 2025) GE Aerospace stands alone as the pure-play leader in commercial jet engines after the successful spin-off from the old General Electric conglomerate.

With over 60 per cent share of the widebody engine market — and that share still growing — GE is the undisputed powerhouse in one of the best business models in all of industrials.

Demand for its flagship GE9X and GEnx engines remains red-hot. Just this week, Emirates and Saudia placed major new orders (adding to Emirates’ total of 560 GE engines), and hardly a week goes by without another airline announcement. These new engine sales are great, but the real magic is what comes next: decades of ultra-high-margin aftermarket service.

GE’s service backlog has ballooned to more than US$140 billion and is growing roughly 30 per cent per year. Services now drive ~55 per cent of total revenue yet an incredible 85 per cent of segment profit, with gross margins around 55 per cent. These long-term service agreements are sticky — airlines have little choice but to sign — and include annual price escalators that protect GE against inflation.

Longer-term tailwinds are massive: delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus mean airlines are flying planes years longer than planned, dramatically increasing shop visits and spare-parts demand. When Emirates’ CEO publicly said they chose Boeing 777Xs over Airbus A350s largely because Rolls-Royce engines require too much maintenance, it was a huge public vote of confidence in GE’s superior reliability and lower lifecycle cost.

Bottom line: GE Aerospace is a wide-moat, high-margin, cash-flow machine with years of visible growth ahead. This is a core long-term holding in our industrials and inflation-resilient portfolio.

CASH

Barometer is currently holding an elevated 15 per cent Cash weight in portfolios given the recent narrowing of market leadership. Cash is not meant to be a long term holding but rather is a defensive measure which also poses opportunity to add new positions in sectors showing the greatest resilience when market leadership begins to broaden.

PAST PICKS: NOVEMBER 6, 2024

M&T BANK (MTB NYSE)

Then: US$216.56

Now: US$185.48

Return: -14%

Total Return: -12%

Motorola Solutions (MSI NYSE)

Then: US$469.13

Now: US$373.29

Return: -20%

Total Return: -19%

Atkinsrealis Group (ATRL TSX)

Then: $69.61

Now: $90.23

Return: 30%

Total Return: 30%

Total Return Average: -0.33%