David Burrows, President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management
Focus: North American Large Caps
Top picks: Rio Tinto, Eli Lilly, Tesla
MARKET OUTLOOK:
At Barometer, we believe the primary risk to wealth today is persistent inflation. To protect our clients, we focus on sectors that serve as “natural hedges”—industries where companies possess the pricing power to pass on rising costs or hold hard assets that appreciate as the dollar’s purchasing power declines. Dividend growth is a key driver.
Our current tactical focus on banking, industrials, materials, and international equities is being validated by a powerful expansion in market breadth. We are seeing more stocks in these themes participate in the advance, moving out of multi-year bases into confirmed stage 2 uptrends.
The fundamental driver behind this technical strength is a broad-based improvement in earnings estimates.
- Financials: Transitioning from “good to better” as double-digit earnings per share growth returns across all industry subgroups, supported by resilient net interest margins.
- Materials & Industrials: Benefiting from a structural “productivity super-deduction” cycle and reshoring. Analysts have recently revised 2026 earnings growth for Materials and Industrials higher, now projecting a 13 per cent to 17 per cent increase as the market revalues companies providing the “physical infrastructure” for the AI and energy transition.
- International: With global “exceptionalism” shifting away from a U.S.-only focus, international stocks are showing superior relative performance as their earnings profiles stabilize alongside a moderating U.S. dollar.
By focusing on these themes where breadth is expanding and earnings are being revised upward, we ensure our portfolios remain in the “green light” zones of the market while insulating against the long-term erosion of inflation.
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TOP PICKS:
Rio Tinto (RIO NYSE)
From a top-down perspective, the Metals & Mining sector is showing robust technical breadth, with Rio itself trading in a confirmed technical uptrend well above its rising 200-day moving average (approximately US$63.30). The stock has recently broken out of a multi year base.
This global production powerhouse is undergoing a structural shift, aggressively pivoting its portfolio toward “energy transition” metals—copper, lithium, and high-grade aluminum—which are seeing inelastic demand from global decarbonization efforts.
This diversified platform acts as a powerful inflation hedge, as Rio possesses the rare ability to pass through rising costs while benefiting from high commodity prices. Most importantly for our clients, this operational strength will support a strong, growing dividend stream, providing tangible passive income while we wait for the multi-year revaluation of its lithium and copper assets to play out.
Eli Lilly (LLY NYSE)
Eli Lilly is the quintessential “good getting better” story. While most people see a traditional pharmaceutical company, we see a transformational growth platform. The explosion in demand for their GLP-1 treatments (Mounjaro and Zepbound) has shifted the company from a steady income-earner to a high-powered growth engine.
In fact, as of late 2025, the stock has broken out of a significant technical base and is trading above all key moving averages, —a key “green light” for our tactical process meaning that market participants are on the same page.
What makes this a “Barometer” pick is the combination of improving breadth in the healthcare sector and a quantifiable catalyst: the move from injectable treatments to a more convenient oral pill. This structural shift in how medicine is delivered is exactly the kind of event that leads to a “multiple revision”—where investors decide the company is worth even more than before. With a disciplined stop-loss in place to manage risk, LLY fits our mandate of owning the market’s strongest leadership.
Tesla (TSLA NASD)
Tesla is currently one of our top picks because it has finally broken out of a massive four-year base, signaling the beginning of a potentially powerful structural revaluation.
While the market spent years viewing Tesla strictly through an automotive lens, we are seeing a “green light” transition as investors begin to value the company as a dominant, full-stack AI and robotics platform.
With the stock trading firmly in an uptrend above all moving averages, the technicals are confirming a major rotation into “physical AI.” Over the next 24 months, the combination of unsupervised FSD regulatory approvals and the initial production ramp of the Optimus humanoid robot acts as a series of high-impact catalysts. At Barometer, we follow the breadth, and right now, the money is moving into companies that can scale AI in the real world—making Tesla the premier revaluation candidate for the next leadership cycle.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIO NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| LLY NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| TSLA NASD | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: APRIL 14, 2025
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS (WPM TSX)
Then: $115.00
Now: $162.42
Return: 41%
Total Return: 42%
EXPAND ENERGY (EXE NASD)
Then: US$104.23
Now: US$108.10
Return: 4%
Total Return: 6%
CASH NASD
Then: US$69.39
Now: US$75.30
Return: 9%
Total Return: 9%
Total Return Average: 19%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIO NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| LLY NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| TSLA NASD | Y | Y | Y |
