Lyle Stein, President, Forvest Global Wealth Management
Focus: North American & Global stocks
Top picks: Agnico Eagle, Sienna Senior Living, Alphabet
MARKET OUTLOOK:
- Forecast the economy through markets, not economic releases. It’s becoming harder to predict the economy directly. Market rollover (debt or equity) will presage next recession.
- The “K‑shaped” economy. In the past, we described downturns and subsequent recoveries as ”U‑shaped” or “V‑shaped”. Today, the picture is more polarized. For those with steady jobs, homes, and investments, the trajectory is upward. But for those without assets or stable employment, the experience is very different—downward pressure continues. On average, the economy muddles through, but it’s really a story of diverging extremes. Restless people vote.
- The distortions of the AI economy. Roughly half of U.S. growth is being driven by AI‑related capital spending—chips, data centres, and the like. Gains in AI stocks have also fueled consumer spending among those on the “up‑leg” of the K. Meanwhile, those on the “down‑leg” worry about the impact of AI on their jobs. The takeaway: follow the flow of AI investment, and you’ll have a good sense of where both markets and the economy are headed.
- Pick a 3–5-year theme and invest accordingly. We are not going to out-trade a hedge-fund or Wall Street broker with extremely short-term biases.
Given these dynamics, we’re cautious heading into 2026. Long-term Interest rates are stuck and earnings growth, while robust mid-teens, may have been paid for.
Themes: Natural Gas Transition (on this for 3+ years), Aging (health shares relatively cheap), Uncertainty (Gold), Be liquid.
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TOP PICKS:
Agnico Eagle (AEM TSX)
Theme – Gold.
Agnico Eagle has been the go-to, quality, name, in the gold sector. The company is well managed with a long-term focus on creating value for shareholders.
Among senior producers, Agnico is a low-cost producer, (all-in sales cost to $1,400/oz), and printing cash at $4,000 bullion.
It is debt-free with a plan is to return increasing free cash to shareholders (dividend yield currently less than one per cent). Mines are in top-rated jurisdictions.
Sienna Senior Living (SIA TSX)
Sienna Senior Living is a company focused on retirement care for an aging population.
It does not have enough care capacity to handle the baby boomer care needs-e.g. Ontario short 48,000 beds. Sienna Senior Living, by comparison owns and manages 13,000 beds. It’s operational split is 50/50 long term care (highly regulated) and retirement homes (less regulated/more market oriented).
Sienna has seen stable net operating income growth, essentially matching inflation. 4.4 per cent dividend yield and cheaper valuation than peers.
Alphabet (GOOG NASD)
Alphabet is a triple play in AI space: Chips-TPUs (Tensor Processing Units); Large Language Model-Gemini 3.0; Existing Infrastructure (Search).
Most of all – Cash and cash flow!
In the land of 25 to 30 times price-to-earnings, Alphabet offers stability at time when perceived leaders (Open AI, NVDA) could disappoint.
Gemini helps Alphabet maintain search, and shift to inference from compute plays into Alphabet TPU strengths. Expect earnings per share estimates to rise through 2026; US$12 not unreasonable with upside. Room for multiple expansion.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEM TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| SIA TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| GOOG NASD | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: FEB. 7, 2025
Cameco (CCO TSX)
Then: $71.30
Now: $124.22
Return: 74%
Total Return: 75%
AltaGas (ALA TSX)
Then: $34.85
Now: $41.08
Return: 18%
Total Return: 22%
Generac (GNRC NYSE)
Then: US$142.11
Now: US$138.94
Return: -2%
Total Return: -2%
Total Return Average: 32%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCO TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| ALA TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| GNRC NYSE | N | N | N |
