Stan Wong, Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management
Focus: North American large caps & ETFs
Top picks: Amazon, Invesco DB Base Metals ETF, JPMorgan Chase
MARKET OUTLOOK:
As we turn the page to 2026, markets remain on a constructive footing after a third consecutive year of strong gains for U.S. equities and a solid showing from the TSX.
The backdrop continues to improve as inflation moderates, corporate profits remain healthy and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) leading indicators now point to strengthening global economic momentum.
With valuations higher than in recent years, results will matter more than stories, and consensus expectations call for earnings growth of nearly 14 per cent for the S&P 500, supported by sustained investment in artificial intelligence, automation, cloud infrastructure and digital transformation.
That encouraging setup is balanced by several forces likely to lead to periodic choppiness and episodes of volatility. Shifts in monetary policy – which are increasingly becoming a tailwind, the transition to a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve chair, the renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and the U.S. midterm elections later this year may all contribute to this environment. While a more accommodative The U.S. Federal Reserve is ultimately constructive for risk assets, leadership transitions and political developments can still create short-term uncertainty as markets recalibrate expectations.
Beneath the surface, the economic picture remains supportive. Inflation is largely under control, the labour market continues to show resilience and earnings expectations remain healthy.
At the same time, nearly US$7.7 trillion is still parked in U.S. money-market assets, representing a meaningful pool of potential demand as investors gradually redeploy capital. Interest-rate expectations will therefore remain a key swing factor as markets reassess the future policy path.
At The Stan Wong Group, we emphasize high-quality large-cap equities alongside short- to intermediate-term government and investment-grade corporate bonds. Our approach is data-driven, diversified and valuation-disciplined, with a focus on businesses that offer durable cash flow, competitive strength and strong earnings growth. This framework, integrated within each client’s total wealth plan, helps maintain portfolio alignment and risk control through changing market conditions.
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TOP PICKS:
Amazon.com (AMZN NDAQ)
Amazon remains the clear global leader in e-commerce and a dominant force in cloud computing through Amazon Web Services (AWS). Its unrivaled scale allows the company to reinvest continuously in growth and customer experience, reinforcing its leadership position. Fiscal 2026 revenue is expected to exceed US$795 billion, while earnings are forecast to grow nearly 19 per cent annually, driven by operating leverage and the rising contribution of higher-margin businesses. Although the shares lagged the broader market in 2025, long-term technical uptrends remain intact, suggesting the stock may be poised to re-engage as fundamentals strengthen.
AWS is Amazon’s profit engine and enables enterprises to deploy artificial intelligence, data analytics, and cloud-native applications at scale. High-margin segments such as AWS and advertising are now growing faster than the core retail business, lifting overall profitability. Amazon is also using artificial intelligence and robotics across its fulfillment network to streamline inventory management, optimize delivery routes, and reduce labour intensity. This shift is already lifting operating margins and creating a new efficiency cycle across the company.
At the centre of Amazon’s ecosystem is its Prime membership base, which attracts and retains loyal customers who consistently spend more on the platform. This reinforces a powerful network effect while generating recurring, high-margin subscription revenue. With leadership across e-commerce, cloud infrastructure, and digital advertising, and with multiple catalysts aligned with long-term trends, Amazon remains well positioned for sustained revenue growth, expanding margins, and long-term shareholder value creation.
Invesco DB Base Metals ETF (DBB NYSEARCA)
The Invesco DB Base Metals ETF provides direct exposure to a diversified basket of industrial metals, including copper, aluminum, and zinc. These metals are essential inputs across construction, manufacturing, transportation, and infrastructure, making the fund a straightforward way to participate in global industrial growth without single-company risk.
Near-term conditions are increasingly supportive. Copper has recently reached new all-time highs, while aluminum and zinc have broken out to new 52-week highs. These technically positive signals reflect tightening supply conditions and improving demand. Precious metals have already surged, and historically this phase is often followed by a period where base metals outperform as economic activity and infrastructure spending accelerate.
Chinese policy signals toward renewed infrastructure stimulus are lifting physical consumption, while exchange-tracked inventories remain near multi-year lows, leaving markets vulnerable to supply disruptions. The build-out of AI-driven data centres and power-grid infrastructure is also accelerating demand for copper-intensive equipment such as transformers, cabling, and transmission components. Falling real interest rates and a softer U.S. dollar further support industrial-metal pricing.
Over the longer term, the Invesco DB Base Metals ETF is tied to powerful structural themes including electrification, renewable-energy deployment, electric-vehicle adoption, and global infrastructure renewal. Years of underinvestment continue to constrain new mine supply, creating a favourable supply-demand backdrop. With technical momentum now aligning with compelling macro tailwinds, the fund offers attractive exposure to a potential multi-year base-metals upcycle while diversifying beyond traditional equity and fixed-income assets.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM NYSE)
JPMorgan Chase is the largest and most diversified U.S. bank, with leading positions across consumer banking, credit cards, investment banking, commercial lending, asset management, and payments. The firm’s unmatched scale, strong capital base, and broad deposit franchise provide a durable competitive advantage across economic cycles. Fiscal 2026 revenue is forecast to exceed US$193 billion, reflecting continued strength across its core businesses and improving capital-markets activity. The bank continues to perform well in retail and card services, where customer acquisition and digital engagement remain strong, while its investment-banking and markets divisions are benefiting from rising issuance and advisory activity as financing conditions normalize.
From a broader perspective, U.S. financials are becoming increasingly attractive as interest-rate expectations stabilize, capital-markets confidence improves, and corporate investment resumes. JPMorgan stands to benefit from a rebound in deal activity, gradual improvement in loan growth, and resilient consumer spending supported by solid employment trends. The firm’s ongoing investments in technology, particularly in payments, automation, and data analytics, are improving efficiency and strengthening relationships across its large client base.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan is well positioned to benefit from long-term trends such as aging demographics, which are driving demand for retirement planning and wealth-management services, as well as the continued shift toward digital banking and cashless payments. With best-in-class management, diversified earnings streams, and a proven ability to return capital to shareholders, JPMorgan offers investors a compelling blend of defensive stability and cyclical upside.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN NASD | Y | Y | Y |
| DBB NYSEARCA | Y | Y | Y |
| JPM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: JAN. 8, 2025
FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND (XLF NYSE)
Then: US$48.49
Now: US$55.97
Return: 15%
Total Return: 17%
NVIDIA (NVDA NASD)
Then: US$140.11
Now: US$184.94
Return: 32%
Total Return: 32%
UNITEDHEALTH (UNH NYSE)
Then: US$524.52
Now: US$345.99
Return: -34%
Total Return: -32%
Total Return Average: 6%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| NVDA NDAQ | Y | Y | Y |
| UNH NYSE | N | N | N |
