Kim Bolton, President and Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas
Focus: Technology Stocks
Top picks: Trane Technologies, Caterpillar, Eaton Corp
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Black Swan Dexteritas will summarize the stock market performance for the month of January 2026, and our 2026 outlook for the technology arena.
Global financial markets began 2026 with gains, navigating high volatility as geopolitical risk increased. The strong performance trends from 2025 extended into the new year and were led by small-cap exposures and commodities.
Global equity markets posted muted gains amid heightened volatility, driven by strength in small-cap stocks, energy and commodity sensitive sectors, and emerging markets.
U.S. interest rates were little changed for the month as investors focused on the transition in Federal Reserve leadership and strong economic data. The U.S. dollar declined against most major currencies. Commodities delivered strong gains amid elevated volatility, led by natural gas, oil and silver.
Your BSD team believes the 2026 investment theme will centre on the transition from the AI buildout to measurable ROI. The theme sets the tone for the year as a transition from infrastructure expansion and AI experimentation into scaled deployment and financial proof. In 2026, the key differentiator becomes not who has the biggest model, but who can operationalize AI into higher utilization, autonomous workflows, and measurable margin impact - turning AI from a technology story into an earnings story.
If the audience is interested in those single stocks that we will be rebalancing from the compute infrastructure to the autonomy wave and those manufacturers, financial institutions, and healthcare providers that will be unlocking tangible productivity gains, margin expansion, and new industry specific applications, please contact us.
While the market searches for the next fundamental catalyst, technical signal, and changes in capital flows, your BSD team will continue to trim those securities that are achieving their respective intrinsic values, and buy those technology growth stocks that exhibit longer, more lucrative investment runways.
The hedging overlay will always be an important tool to protect your capital in bearish markets, and an important tool to be ‘dialed down’ in bullish markets.
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TOP PICKS:
Trane Technologies (TT NYSE)
A global climate–solutions company best known for high-efficiency HVAC for buildings/homes and temperature-controlled transport. It operates through three regions, Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific, and goes to market primarily under the brands Trane (commercial & residential HVAC) and Thermo King (truck/trailer/rail/marine refrigeration). Strategy is anchored in sustainability (decarbonization, electrification, efficiency) and a growing services/software mix.
Caterpillar (CAT NYSE)
Caterpillar is the world’s largest maker of heavy equipment with a global dealer network and four reporting segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy & Transportation (now reported as Power & Energy in releases), and Financial Products. It sells machines and engines used across construction, mining, energy, and transportation, and finances customer purchases via Cat Financial.
Eaton Corp (ETN NYSE)
Eaton Corporation plc (NYSE: ETN) is an Irish-domiciled multinational intelligent power management company founded in 1911 (originally as Eaton Corporation) and headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, with significant operations in the U.S. (Cleveland area historically) and global presence. It specializes in electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power management solutions, focusing on energy efficiency, sustainability, and electrification trends. Eaton provides products and services that improve power quality, distribution, control, and reliability across industries. The company reported 2025 revenues of approximately US$27.4 billion (up from prior years), driven by strong demand in data centers, electrification, and aerospace. It operates through segments including Electrical Americas, Electrical Global, Aerospace, Vehicle, and eMobility. Eaton is a leader in power management for data centers, utilities, industrial, commercial, residential, aerospace, and mobility markets, with a commitment to environmental protection and innovation in renewable energy transition and AI-driven infrastructure.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| TT NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| CAT NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| ETN NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: JAN. 29, 2025
Okta (OKTA NASD)
Then: US$94.00
Now: US$83.64
Return: -11%
Total Return: -11%
SAP SE (SAP NYSE)
Then: US$276.83
Now: US$200.20
Return: -28%
Total Return: -27%
Fortinet (FTNT NASD)
Then: US$99.33
Now: US$80.49
Return: -19%
Total Return: -19%
Total Return Average: -19%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA NASD | N | N | N |
| SAP NYSE | N | N | N |
| FTNT NASD | Y | N | Y |
