Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager, Velocity Investment Partners, Raymond James
Focus: Canadian & U.S. Large Caps
Top Picks: ATS Corp, NRG Energy, Netflix
MARKET OUTLOOK:
U.S. markets may be pausing near recent highs, but the bigger picture is the shift from a liquidity-driven rally to a fundamentals-driven market. We’re entering a more selective phase, where returns are driven less by broad momentum and more by earnings quality, sector positioning, and policy clarity.
The economy remains resilient, jobless claims are contained, and business investment is steady. AI spending continues to support growth, but the biggest capex spenders are under the most scrutiny. Investors want clear proof that elevated spending is translating into stronger earnings and sustainable returns.
What makes it feel volatile is the dispersion beneath the surface: nearly 25 per cent of the S&P 500 is already up or down more than 20 per cent. This isn’t a rising-tide market. Energy, infrastructure, and select industrials are gaining leadership, while parts of tech and consumer are being repriced.
In Canada, the dynamic is similar but with a commodity tilt. The Toronto Stock Exchange is benefiting from strength in energy and materials as oil firms and copper demand holds up. Inflation has cooled, giving the Bank of Canada flexibility, and trade data is stabilizing. Housing remains soft and trade negotiations add uncertainty, but resource exposure is acting as a buffer.
Overall, this is a market of rotation, not recession. Leadership is shifting, but the macro foundation remains intact. Our outlook remains constructive but cautious. We favor high-quality earnings and selective growth, lean into commodity exposure in Canada, and add international diversification. We remain diversified and nimble as geopolitics, policy, and earnings shape leadership.
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TOP PICKS:
ATS Corp (ATS TSX)
ATS remains one of the most compelling automation platforms in the market, benefiting directly from the structural shift toward reshoring, labour scarcity, and the modernization of global manufacturing. Companies across life sciences, EVs, food and beverage, and industrial technology continue to accelerate capital spending on automation to improve throughput, reliability, and cost efficiency. ATS is positioned at the high value end of this trend with highly engineered, customized systems that integrate robotics, vision, analytics, and precision motion. Its project pipeline remains healthy, margins are improving as scale grows, and management continues to execute well on acquisitions that expand both capabilities and recurring revenue streams. The recent price momentum reflects the business’s resilience in volatile periods. We see further upside as production shifts to North America and Europe, positioning ATS to benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds. ATS offers what megacap tech cannot: exposure to “real economy” modernization, strong execution, and an under owned industrial growth engine with more predictable earnings momentum.
NRG Energy (NRG NYSE)
We like it because it provides exposure to rising U.S. power demand, especially tied to data centers and AI. NRG is one of the largest competitive power producers in the U.S., supplying electricity to millions of homes and businesses while also owning its own generation fleet. With the LS Power acquisition, NRG becomes more generation-heavy, meaning it benefits more directly if power prices stay firm in tight supply markets. The last quarter was solid, with earnings coming in stronger than expected, showing the business is operating well in the current environment. A key growth driver is data centers. NRG now has about 445 megawatts of contracted capacity tied to that demand, linking it directly to the AI and cloud buildout. In our view, NRG is evolving from a traditional power retailer into a structural growth story tied to long-term electricity shortages and the digital economy and that’s why we like it.
Netflix (NFLX NASD)
We believe the timing is attractive for investors as Netflix continues to strengthen its competitive position. While the streaming landscape is competitive, Netflix remains the only platform with true global distribution, industry-leading engagement, consistent content performance, and sustainably positive free cash flow. The password-sharing crackdown improved monetization, and the ad-supported tier is gaining traction, with the ads business reaching roughly $1.5B in 2025 revenue. Subscriber trends remain solid, and expansion into live events, sports-adjacent programming, gaming initiatives, and local language hits deepens engagement and reduces churn. We think strategically the Warner deal makes sense. It gives Netflix a premium content library, established theatrical infrastructure, and global franchises like DC and Harry Potter that deepen its competitive moat. The renewed Paramount discussions add short-term headline risk around the Warner deal, but we view it as negotiation noise rather than a shift in the long-term thesis, with Netflix still in a strong position and able to match competing offers.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| NRG TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| NFLX NASD | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: AUG. 25, 2025
IBM (IBM NYSE)
Then: US$239.43
Now: US$255.26
Return: 7%
Total Return: 8%
Salesforce (CRM NYSE)
Then: US$247.87
Now: US$188.04
Return: -23%
Total Return: -24%
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.UN TSX)
Then: $42.69
Now: $52.03
Return: 22%
Total Return: 25%
Total Return Average: 3%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| CRM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| BIP.UN TSX | Y | Y | Y |
