Keith Richards, President and Chief Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
Focus: Technical analysis
Top Picks: Brookfield Infrastructure, AtkinsRéalis, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
MARKET OUTLOOK:
A few things to consider in the coming months.
First, seasonality: The average performance for the S&P 500 index (SPX) is relatively flat over the May – September period during most years. But the mid-term election years that average changes to decidedly volatile or bearish during that period.
Then, there’s the current risk appetite by retail “average” investors – which is a bit concerning.
Household exposures to equities on their balance sheet at unprecedented highs (72 per cent share of the asset mix). The smart/dumb money confidence ratio by sentimentrader.com shows a high comparative level of “dumb money” (retail) confidence. All in, retail investors appear to hold a pervasive belief that the stock market had emerged as an almost riskless asset class. Which it is not!
And its not just retail investors glowing with enthusiasm! My own kin within the National Association of Active Investment Managers are holding minimal cash levels, and minimal hedging activities. For example, the put-to-call ratio is coming off four-year lows. The pros, too, act like stocks are a riskless investment right now.
All in, my contrarian instincts are suggesting a good potential for a spring selloff. As such… we are defensive. We hold about 20 per cent cash in our equity model, and are focused on value, lower beta sectors, select commodities, and international holdings.
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TOP PICKS:
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.UN TSX)
AtkinsRéalis (ATRL TSX)
Pulled back to support
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM NYSE)
Food commodity and play
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIP.UN TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| ATRL TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| ABM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: NOV. 12, 2025
BMO MSCI India Selection Equity Index ETF (ZID TSX)
Then: $51.45
Now: $44.84
Return: -13%
Total Return: -12%
Aecon (ARE TSX)
Then: $27.37
Now: $39.41
Return: 44%
Total Return: 45%
Invesco S&P 500 Eql Wght ETF (RSP NYSEARCA)
Then: US$190.18
Now: US$204.59
Return: 8%
Total Return: 8%
Total Return Average: 14%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZID TSX | N | N | N |
| ARE TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| RSP NYSEARCA | Y | Y | Y |
