Javed Mirza, Quantitative, Technical Strategist, Raymond James
Focus: Quantitative/technical strategist
Top Picks: Tourmaline Oil, Intact Financial Corporation, Brookfield Infrastructure
MARKET OUTLOOK:
A new short-term (one to three weeks) corrective phase is attempting to get underway which would target important technical support on most North American equity indices near their 50-day moving averages. We view pending near-term weakness as an opportunity to add cyclical exposure as our longer-term market cycle model and time cycle work suggests this short-term corrective phase is within the context of an intermediate-term (three to six months month) equity market rally phase that should have upside, by time, into July.
The sector rotation back towards phase two plays namely information technology, industrials, and basic materials strongly suggests that phase two of the market cycle model remains intact.
With the kinetic phase of the conflict in West Asia appearing to draw to a close, equity markets have repaired the technical damage inflicted in March by reclaiming their 50/200-day moving averages, confirming their short and intermediate-term price trends are now up. The multi-day close above key technical levels at their 50/200-day moving averages by the S&P 500, TSX Composite, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 strongly suggests equity markets have regained their footing. This is supportive of equity markets remaining entrenched in phase 2 of the market cycle model and that the “TT” (Trump Tweet) four-year cycle is back on track.
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TOP PICKS:
A new intermediate-term (three to six months) rally phase is attempting to get underway on Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU), Intact Financial Corp. (IFC) and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP/UN) as price momentum is positive, relative strength is trending higher versus the TSX Composite, and volume shows signs of buying pressure, as institutional investors are accumulating positions.
In addition, the intermediate-term price trend is strengthening as the stocks are trading above an important technical level at their respective 40-week (about 200-day) moving averages.
All of these are technical positives that are supportive of further upside.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU:TSX)
Ind. Gross Yield: 2.98%
EST P/E: 13X
Mkt Cap: 26.2B
BHS: 12/7/0
PT: $71.89
Intact Financial Corporation (IFC:TSX)
Ind. Gross Yield: 2.18%
EST P/E: 15X
Mkt Cap: 47.5B
BHS: 10/4/0
PT: $312.86
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-UN:TSX)
Ind. Gross Yield: 4.72%
EST P/E: 46X
Mkt Cap: 34.8B
BHS: 10/2/0
PT: $60.06
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOU TSX | N | N | N |
| IFC TSX | N | N | N |
| BIP-UN TSX | N | N | N |
PAST PICKS: JUNE 5, 2025
Lundin Mining (LUN TSX)
Then: $14.41
Now: $37.43
Return: 160%
Total Return: 160%
NuVista Energy (NVA TSX)
Then: $14.14
Now: $19.04
Return: 35%
Total Return: 35%
Russel Metals (RUS TSX)
Then: $42.58
Now: $58.01
Return: 36%
Total Return: 39%
Total Return Average: 78%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUN TSX | N | N | N |
| NVA TSX | N | N | N |
| RUS TSX | N | N | N |

