Brendan Caldwell’s Top Picks for June 24, 2026

Brendan Caldwell, President, CEO & CIO, Caldwell Investment Management Ltd.

Focus: North American equites

Top Picks: PriceSmart, Materion, Ryman Hospitality Properties

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Equity markets move through 2026 with a constructive but more volatile backdrop following a strong 2025. Global growth remains resilient, supported by past rate cuts, fiscal support, and continued capital spending tied to AI and productivity-enhancing investments.

The near-term backdrop has become less straightforward, however, as supply shocks and sticky energy prices have increased inflation uncertainty.

Reflecting a cautious, data-dependent stance, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada held rates unchanged in June 2026. Corporate fundamentals remain healthy.

Earnings growth is expected to drive equity returns, as elevated valuations leave less room for multiple expansion. Market leadership has also broadened beyond mega-cap tech, with improving participation across sectors tied to capital investment, industrial activity, and structural themes like data infrastructure and electrification.

However, this increases sensitivity to execution delays or earnings shortfalls.

In Canada, market performance has been supported by firm commodity prices. Strength in gold, energy, and banks has helped the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) offset a softer domestic economy, which was pressured by weak business investment and a first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) contraction.

Risks remain, as elevated headline inflation, geopolitical friction in the Middle East, and policy uncertainty could fuel volatility. In this environment, we remain focused on high-quality companies with strong earnings power, disciplined capital allocation, and proven ability to navigate volatility, which we believe are best positioned to deliver sustainable returns.

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TOP PICKS:

PriceSmart (PSMT NASDAQ)

Think Costco (literally the same founders) but in the Caribbean, Central and South America.

Why we like them

• New store growth: low penetration in existing markets, and new market entrance (Chile in 2026) support a durable new store growth runway.
• Customer stickiness: PriceSmart is often the only membership club business in their markets offering access to foreign brands that are tough for consumers to source elsewhere which supports a premium brand image and market share gains.
• New CEO, digitization catch up: the founder’s grandson (David Price) took the helm in Sept. 2025. He’s seen as embodying the company’s core values but with a greater emphasis on digital transformation which helps customer stickiness and membership upsell which is driving an acceleration in high-margin membership income.
• Underlying comparable sales growth (mid-single digit to high-single digit per cent) is similar to cost and can be had for approximately 30 times earnings per share (EPS) versus 46 times for cost.

Materion (MTRN NYSE)

A global advanced materials specialist that synthesizes ultra-high purity electronic chemicals, precision clad strips, and beryllium-based alloys for premium semiconductor, defence, and aerospace applications.

Why we like them

• Global monopoly position in beryllium extraction; advanced engineered materials, chemicals and specialty alloy products serving semiconductor, aerospace and defence, life science, consumer electronics, and automotive end markets.
• Secular drivers: exposure to megatrends - semiconductor complexity, new energy, advanced defense systems, vehicle electrification, commercialization of space.
• Performance materials (38 per cent of revenue) segment expected to see accelerating growth in the second half of the year 2026 following resolution of production quality issues and drawdown of record backlog in defence (content on numerous weapon systems used in the Iran war) and space end markets.
• First half of the year 2026 was first clean quarter following two quarters of quality issues in the segment.
• Electronic materials (57 per cent of revenue) segment demand strong, driven by semi fabrication and semi cap companies; segment margins expected to move structurally higher on robust multi-year demand outlook and positive mix benefits.
• Precision optics (six per cent of revenue) benefiting from nascent turnaround following operational missteps, shifting consumer projection display demand, and product mix drag in 2025; also seeing new business wins across multiple end markets.

Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP NYSE)

Operator of combined hotel convention centres and entertainment assets; approximately 90 per cent earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from hospitality and remaining 10 per cent from entertainment; owner of five out of seven of the largest non-gaming convention hotels in the U.S.

Why we like them

• Contractual revenue booked two to three years out with strict attrition to cancellation fees providing good visibility.
• 50 per cent of RHP’s group volume is composed of non-corporate associations and SMERF (social, military, educational, religious, and fraternal) groups.
• Sees approximately US$1.50 in on premises revenue spent for every US$1 spent on hotel rooms.
• Industry driver: return of large, in-person conventions; RHP is seeing same store revenue plus six per cent year over year 2026 year-to-date highlighting strong demand.
• Potential catalysts include a spin-off of the entertainment segment.

PAST PICKS: APRIL 3, 2025

CBOE (CBOE BATS)

Then: US$225.80

Now: US$256.71

Return: 14%

Total Return: 15%

Amazon (AMZN NASDAQ)

Then: US$178.41

Now: US$238.30

Return: 34%

Total Return: 34%

Costco (COST NASDAQ)

Then: US$967.08

Now: US$962.66

Return: -0.5%

Total Return: 0.25%

Total Return Average: 16%