Kim Bolton, President and Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas
Focus: Technology stocks
Top Picks: Cadence Design Systems, Shopify, Oracle
MARKET OUTLOOK:
The market chatters these days, is about September, traditionally the weakest month of the year for stocks, but remember the last two Septembers were positive. All in, the S&P 500’s average September performance since 1945 has been a decline of 0.7 per cent.
Even worse, Septembers in midterm years have tended to be even weaker, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of 1.3 per cent, or nearly twice the decline of all years. With this background, now is the time for risk management to be vigilant. While the market searches for the next fundamental catalyst, technical signal, and changes in capital flows, your Black Swan Dexteritas (BSD) team will continue to trim those securities that are achieving their respective intrinsic values, and buy those technology growth stocks that exhibit longer, more lucrative investment runways. The hedging overlay continues to be an important tool to protect your capital in bearish markets, and an important tool to be ‘dialed down’ in bullish markets.
Within the technology arena the software sector has been in the doghouse. However, the emergence of agentic artificial intelligence (AI) enterprise software is moving from AI systems that generate answers to AI systems that can plan, coordinate, make decisions, use tools, and execute work across applications. The key investor question is shifting from who has the best chatbot? to which platforms are becoming the operating layer through which autonomous digital work is executed. Your BSD Team is proud to be your investment ‘eyes and ears’ in the technology arena.
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TOP PICKS:
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS NASDAQ)
- Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is an American multinational computational software company that provides electronic design automation (EDA) software, hardware, and intellectual property (IP) for designing integrated circuits, systems-on-chips, and printed circuit boards.
- Cadence Design Systems demonstrates strong financial health backed by robust profitability, high gross margins, and healthy liquidity metrics. While valuation ratios like price–earnings ratio (P/E) reflect a significant market premium due to high demand for AI-driven Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, recent strategic acquisitions have introduced moderate debt, which remains well-managed against strong operating cash flows."
- 30 Days performance: -9.20 per cent
- 100 Days performance: -20.04 per cent
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$305.24 add at approximately US$289.98 and approximately US$274.72
Shopify (SHOP NASDAQ)
- Shopify Inc. is a Canadian multinational e-commerce company that provides a cloud-based software-as-a-service platform for online stores and retail point-of-sale systems.
- Shopify features excellent liquidity, negligible debt risk, and a healthy return on equity, though it trades at a high valuation multiple reflecting strong growth expectations.
- 30 Days performance: 19.79 per cent
- 100 Days performance: 33.62 per cent
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$140.17 add approximately US$133.16 and approximately US$126.15
Oracle (ORCL NYSE)
- Oracle Corporation is an American multinational technology company specializing in enterprise software, database management systems, cloud computing infrastructure, and computer hardware.
- Deepened strategic collaboration with AWS to expand Oracle AI Database availability to 22 regions.
- Introduced new AI agents and Fusion Agentic Applications to enhance talent management and supply chain operations.
- Partnered with Quantinuum to accelerate hybrid quantum compute adoption on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
- Announced availability of Oracle Health’s AI-powered patient portal.
- Oracle is scheduled to release its Q1 FY2027 earnings on September 9, 2026.
- Oracle displays solid profitability and high ROE driven by cloud service expansion, but it maintains significant leverage and tight liquidity due to aggressive capital expenditures.
- 30 Days performance: 2.28 per cent
- 100 Days performance: -24.85 per cent
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$145.09 add at approximately US$137.84 and approximately US$130.58
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDNS NASDAQ | Y | Y | Y |
| SHOP NASDAQ | Y | Y | Y |
| ORCL NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: SEPT. 10, 2025
Honeywell (HON NASD)
Then: US$211.70
Now: US$206.07
Return: -1%
Total Return: 0.72%
Palantir (PLTR NASD)
Then: US$166.74
Now: US$169.46
Return: 2%
Total Return: 2%
Uber (UBER NYSE)
Then: US$94.21
Now: US$76.45
Return: -19%
Total Return: -19%
Total Return Average: -5%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| HON NASD | N | N | N |
| PLTR NASD | Y | Y | Y |
| UBER NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
