Brendan Caldwell’s Top Picks for Sept. 24, 2026

Brendan Caldwell, President & CEO, Caldwell Investment Management

Focus: North American Large Caps

Top Picks: PriceSmart, AZZ Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties

MARKET OUTLOOK:

U.S. equities face a delicate regime transition where resilient corporate fundamentals collide with sticky macroeconomic friction. The primary engine supporting valuations remains solid earnings execution.

S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) momentum continues to impress, underpinned by robust enterprise spend in artificial intelligence infrastructure, expanding tech margins, and healthy mega-cap balance sheets. However, multiple expansion has largely run its course. With trailing and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio multiples sitting well above historical medians, the market offers virtually no margin for error.

The main headwind stems from sticky inflation and monetary drag. Brent crude remaining above $100—driven by lingering Middle East supply anxieties—continues to filter through energy inputs and shipping freight, keeping headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) elevated. In response, the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate hike to 3.75-4.00 per cent underscores a “higher-for-longer” monetary stance that limits further valuation ceiling expansion.

Elevated 10-year Treasury yields provide viable yield competition for equity risk capital, capping market-wide multiple re-ratings. Market leadership is gradually broadening beyond the hyperscalers toward cash-generative industrial supply chains, healthcare, and quality commercial banking. Yet, asymmetric downside risk persists if sticky input costs begin eroding operating margins in lower-tier cyclical sectors

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TOP PICKS:

PriceSmart (PSMT NASD)

What they do?

• Think Costco (literally the same founders) but in the Caribbean and Central/South America
• 58 stores total moving to 62-63 stores in the next three to five years

Why we like them?

• New store growth: Low penetration in existing markets, and new market entrance (Chile in 2026) support a durable new store growth runway
• Customer stickiness: PSMT is often the only membership club business in their markets offering access to foreign brands that are tough for consumers to source elsewhere which supports a premium brand image and market share gains
• New CEO, digitization catch up: the founder’s grandson (David Price) took the helm in Sept. 2025. He’s seen as embodying the company’s core values but with a greater emphasis on digital transformation which helps customer stickiness and membership upsell which is driving an acceleration in high-margin membership income
• Underlying comp sales growth, mid-single-digit (MSD) and high-single-digit (HSD) per cent, is similar to Costco (COST) and can be had for 30 times EPS vs. 41 times for COST

AZZ Inc (AZZ NYSE)

What they do?

• The leading North American provider of hot-dip galvanizing (post-fabrication steel corrosion protection) and coil coating (application of protective/decorative coatings onto continuous rolled steel and aluminum) for construction, infrastructure, industrial, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), and transportation end-markets

Why we like them?

• Numerous durable secular growth drivers such as manufacturing reshoring, infrastructure stimulus, solar/grid/data center buildouts, and the plastic to aluminum shift in the food and beverage (F&B) industry
• In the last few quarters, solar/grid and data center-related projects supported a growth inflection in the Metal Coatings segment; segment margins were slightly pressured given the more competitive nature of these projects, but mgmt. expects ongoing operational improvements to lessen the headwind in fiscal year 2027 (FY27) (I believe this is the largest driver of the stock’s post EPS run)
• In the coil coating segment (Pre-coat Metals), mgmt. noted continued weakness in interest rate sensitive markets but stabilization relative to last quarter; share gains (discussed below) are helping offset some of the volume weakness
• Approximately 10 per cent of the U.S. market for pre-coated metals was previously imported and now uneconomical due to tariffs – as the largest coil coater in North America, AZZ has taken share across end markets in recent Qs and mgmt. believes it’s still early stages
• AZZ metal coatings revenue plus 15.7 per cent in most recent quarter (MRQ) (vs. +10.8 per cent in the prior quarter) vs. Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI) coatings business plus 6.3 per cent
• Additionally, customers who stockpiled inventory in 2024-2025 ahead of tariffs have largely depleted their reserves of pre-coat metals
• Food & Bev: shift largely driven by health and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns (e.g. recycling, micro plastics etc.); this has been one of the fastest growing subsegments of the pre-coat metals segment in recent quarters
• Taking share from imported material also helps with the volume ramp of their new pre-coat metals facility, supporting continued margin improvement in FY27

Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP NYSE)

What they do?

• A real estate investment trust (REIT) owning large-scale group convention resorts—mainly under the Gaylord Hotels brand—and iconic country music entertainment assets like the Grand Ole Opry

Why we like them?

• Unreplicable Assets: Owns five of the ten largest U.S. non-gaming convention hotels, creating massive supply barriers and high replacement costs.
• Predictable Cash Flow: Multi-year group bookings give exceptional forward revenue visibility and drive high-margin banquet spending.
• Experiential Upside: Controlling stake in Opry Entertainment Group captures high-margin growth in live music and tourism.
• Marriott Scale: Leverages Marriott’s global distribution network to drive occupancy without operational management overhead.

PAST PICKS: SEPT. 22, 2025

UL Solutions (ULS NYSE)

Then: US$68.53

Now: US$65.75

Return: -4%

Total Return: -3%

Motorola Solutions (MSI NYSE)

Then: US$471.47

Now: US$460.21

Return: -2%

Total Return: -1%

TKO Holdings (TKO NYSE)

Then: US$199.67

Now: US$181.91

Return: -9%

Total Return: -7%

Total Return Average: -4%