Mike Vinokur’s Top Picks for Oct. 5, 2026

Market Call – October 5, 2026

Mike Vinokur, Portfolio Manager & Senior Wealth Advisor, Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth

Focus: North American Large Caps

Top Picks: Uber, Talen Energy, Amazon.com

MARKET OUTLOOK:

On the surface, this has been a solid year for investors. The S&P 500 is up nearly 13 per cent, while the Nasdaq has gained about 16 per cent. However, beneath the headline numbers, the picture is far less healthy.

This has been an exceptionally narrow rally, with very few participants. Technology stocks are up more than 28 per cent this year and, in September, were among the few sectors within the S&P 500 that managed to post gains.

Meanwhile, many individual stocks are well below their highs. Roughly three-quarters of the S&P 500 fell in September, even as the index itself was little changed.

A handful of mega-cap companies continues to mask underlying weakness. The divergence is also evident in market breadth. The equal-weight S&P 500, which gives every company the same influence regardless of size, has fallen roughly six per cent since mid-August, while the traditional cap-weighted index has held its own. Small-cap stocks have fared even worse, with the Russell 2000 down about eight per cent from its August peak.

One likely culprit is the bond market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield began the year just above four per cent and recently touched 5.3 per cent, its highest level since 2002 and the largest quarterly increase this century.

Higher yields increase borrowing costs, provide greater competition for investor capital, and put pressure on interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate.

The headline numbers are reassuring, but the market is leaning on a handful of stocks, with rising rates weighing on everything else. Our growth model currently holds nearly 30 per cent in cash, a position we began building in mid-July.

We now see opportunities given the stealth pullback and believe the next few weeks we will get our opportunity to deploy a big portion of our dry powder.

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TOP PICKS:

Uber (UBER NYSE)

Uber remains our preferred way to participate in both the ride-sharing and delivery space. The company benefits from tremendous global scale and network effect. In many ways, Uber operates like a toll booth, collecting a portion of every ride or delivery completed across its vast platform.

The business is now generating substantial free cash flow and demonstrated an ability to successfully integrate acquisitions on a global scale. Uber also continues to expand its value proposition through new partnerships and service offerings. Most recently, the company announced a delivery partnership with Costco through Uber Eats.

Uber has been actively repurchasing their own shares and, at last report, had more than US$15 billion remaining under its buyback authorization. Given the company’s scale, we believe earnings have the potential to reach US$8 per share or more by 2030.

Talen Energy (TLN NASDAQ)

Talen Energy is a lesser-known US independent power producer that owns and operates approximately 15.7 gigawatts of power through diverse assets across14 facilities in five U.S. states. According to management’s latest presentation, the company is on track to generate roughly US$40 per share in FCF in 2028.

Talen is also committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, with no significant debt maturities until 2031. The company has hedged out a meaningful portion of its production through 2026 and 2027. We believe power demand will keep growing and TLN will have the ability to execute on further accretive power purchase agreements (PPAs).

Amazon.com (AMZN NASDAQ)

A juggernaut in its category with scale and size which is unmatched. AMZN is mostly known for its stores, however the Amazon Web Services (AWS) has grown into one of the largest and most profitable segments of the business.

Like Uber, Amazon has a huge scale and network effects and while they are currently making colossal investments into the business, we are excited about the revenue and profitability growth of AWS and advertising businesses and how that growth should translate into earnings.

PAST PICKS: JAN. 26, 2026

MTY Food Group (MTY TSX)

Then: $42.91

Now: $31.13

Return: -27%

Total Return: -25%

HP Inc (HPQ NYSE)

Then: US$19.46

Now: US$31.67

Return: 63%

Total Return: 67%

Lincoln National (LNC NYSE)

Then: US$41.20

Now: US$40.45

Return: -2%

Total Return: 0.39%

Total Return Average: 14%