Jeff Parent, Sr Portfolio Manager, Castlemoore
Focus: Technical Analysis
Top Picks: Mullen, Choice Properties, Darling Ingredients
MARKET OUTLOOK:
With the mid-term elections behind us and today’s upbeat sentiment, I’m slightly bullish. The S&P 500 has been consolidating since June, and with the election uncertainty gone, that consolidation could resolve into a positive trend.
But I need the charts to convince me. The level I’m watching is 7,770. A decisive breakout above it would confirm the move. That’s a tough haul with NVIDIA and other top 10 names struggling. Many haven’t done much in the past 18 months.
Investors will soon open their October statements and see their tech holdings down five to 10 per cent. That’s when people start thinking about taking profits, maybe rotating into consumer staples or utilities. October is when the gap between tech and non-tech portfolios became stark. March 2000 stark. Leadership is narrow and fragile.
Closer to home, the election results are giving people hope for lower oil prices. That’s good news at the pump, but energy makes up about 17 per cent of the TSX Composite, so it could slow any rally here. I’m also watching two bellwethers: PTF, the Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF, and SPMO, the Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF. They don’t lead, they confirm. Whether the S&P breaks out of this range up or down, I want to see these two move with it.
My line in the sand is 7,370. If the S&P 500 breaks below that, I begin selling. Bottom line: I lean bullish, but I need to see the breakout first.
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TOP PICKS:
Mullen (MTL TSX)
Mullen’s upside comes from profits already rising in the businesses it owns, a steady pace of small acquisitions, and possible logistics work on major projects. The chart shows a building pattern into the earning two weeks ago. The earning sell off and follow-on support is positive. Looking for a gain to $35 by spring. Set $25 as the exit.
Choice Properties (CHP.UN TSX)
The nearly 10 per cent drop from July and the bottoming pattern in October are positives. We could see a $1-2 increase plus the five per cent dividend over the next year. Fundamentally, they are going to pay down their debt, increase rents and work on their development pipeline. Begin selling below $14.40
Darling Ingredients (DAR NYSE)
While looking for fundamentally good companies entering a good buying range, this came up. It’s an interesting business that is somewhat unique. Darling turns animal waste into feed, food ingredients and renewable diesel. It’s at a support level now, if it drops below 49, reduce or sell.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTL TSX | N | N | N |
| CHP.UN TSX | N | N | N |
| DAR NYSE | N | N | N |
PAST PICKS: MARCH 23, 2026
Great-West Lifeco (GWO TSX)
Then: $63.21
Now: $91.48
Return: 45%
Total Return: 47%
Canadian Utilities (CU TSX)
Then: $47.22
Now: $52.70
Return: 12%
Total Return: 15%
Pembina Pipeline (PPL TSX)
Then: $61.97
Now: $69.29
Return: 12%
Total Return: 14%
Total Return Average: 25%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| GWO TSX | N | N | Y |
| CU TSX | N | N | Y |
| PPL TSX | Y | Y | Y |

