Mike Philbrick’s Top Picks for Nov. 6, 2026

Market Call – November 6, 2026

Mike Philbrick, CEO, ReSolve Asset Management

Focus: ETFs

Top Picks: CI Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ETF, iShares Core Canadian Short Term Bond Index ETF, VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF

MARKET OUTLOOK:

This week’s sharp artificial intelligence (AI) selloff is a reminder that a technological revolution and a profitable investment aren’t necessarily the same thing.

We’ve discussed AI through three C’s: Capability, Capacity and Capital.

Capability continues to advance. But deploying it requires electricity, data centres, transformers, cooling and skilled labour. Someone must finance that buildout at a price. Markets are now reassessing both its pace and the returns that capital can earn.

But there’s another question: Who ultimately captures the economic benefits?

Railroads transformed the economy, yet many railroad investors lost money. AI could follow a similar pattern.

A shortage can create attractive returns today without creating a durable advantage tomorrow. Owning a temporary bottleneck is different from owning a business that can keep capturing value as intelligence becomes cheaper and more widely available.

That fits our thesis: inputs inflation comes before outputs productivity. Today’s competition for resources and financing may give way to tomorrow’s efficiency gains, and those gains may accrue to very different companies and industries.

It also reinforces why the cause of higher interest rates matters. Rates driven by productive investment are different from rates driven by inflation or sovereign risk.

So I’m less interested in predicting the next Fed meeting or declaring AI over. I’m focused on valuation, diversification and businesses/industries capable of sustaining attractive returns on capital.

Remember, the technology can win while investors still lose.

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TOP PICKS:

CI Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ETF (EQL TSX)

EQL provides exposure to the S&P 500 using an equal-weight methodology rather than traditional market-cap weighting. Each company receives approximately the same weight at rebalancing, reducing dependence on the handful of mega-cap technology companies that have dominated market returns in recent years.

The important question today is whether market leadership can broaden as the economics of AI investment evolve. We’ve discussed how the first phase of the AI revolution has required enormous spending on semiconductors, data centres, electricity and other physical infrastructure.

But the companies building the technology won’t necessarily be the companies capturing the greatest economic benefits. As AI becomes cheaper and more widely available, productivity gains may increasingly emerge in healthcare, industrials, financial services and other businesses capable of deploying it effectively.

Equal weighting provides a straightforward way to participate in that possibility without needing to predict precisely which companies or sectors will benefit most.

The risk is that equal weighting can lag when a small group of mega-cap companies continues to drive market returns. It also increases exposure to smaller and potentially more cyclical S&P 500 constituents, so it should not automatically be viewed as a defensive strategy.

I am not making a call that mega-cap technology leadership is over. Rather, I think investors should question whether their portfolios have become unintentionally concentrated after several years of exceptional performance from a narrow group of stocks.

Portfolio takeaway: EQL offers Canadian investors a simple way to diversify U.S. equity exposure and participate if market leadership and AI productivity benefits broaden beyond today’s dominant technology companies.

iShares Core Canadian Short Term Bond Index ETF (XSB TSX)

XSB provides diversified exposure to short-term Canadian investment-grade bonds, including federal, provincial and corporate issues. It tracks the FTSE Canada Short Term Overall Bond Index and is designed to provide income with less sensitivity to interest-rate movements than broader or longer-duration bond funds.

The fund offers a yield to maturity of approximately 3.6 per cent with effective duration of 2.8 years, based on early-November figures. That’s a meaningful income opportunity for investors seeking to preserve flexibility without making a significant bet on the direction of longer-term interest rates.

We’ve emphasized that the level of interest rates matters, but why rates are high matters more.

Higher rates driven by productive investment demand are fundamentally different from rates driven by resource scarcity, persistent inflation or rising sovereign risk premiums. The enormous capital requirements of AI infrastructure, alongside fiscal pressures and inflation uncertainty, make the outlook for longer-term yields particularly difficult to predict.

I’m not suggesting that investors should abandon longer-duration bonds or that interest rates are necessarily headed higher. But investors can now earn meaningful income without taking as much duration risk.

The trade-off is that shorter-duration bonds generally provide less upside when yields fall sharply. XSB also retains some interest-rate sensitivity and corporate credit exposure, so it is not a substitute for cash.

Portfolio takeaway: XSB offers Canadian investors a liquid way to earn income, moderate duration risk and maintain flexibility while capital markets adjust to an uncertain interest-rate environment.

VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)

MOAT provides exposure to U.S. companies that Morningstar identifies as having sustainable competitive advantages, or economic moats, while emphasizing stocks trading at attractive valuations relative to estimated fair value.

The fund owns businesses across multiple sectors with characteristics such as strong brands, valuable intellectual property, established distribution networks, high switching costs and other advantages that can help protect long-term profitability.

Our evolving AI thesis makes this approach particularly relevant. We’ve discussed the industrialization of intelligence through three C’s: Capability, Capacity and Capital. But the next investment question is increasingly about who ultimately captures the economic benefits.

A shortage can create attractive returns today without creating a durable competitive advantage tomorrow.

The companies benefiting from today’s infrastructure bottlenecks may not be the same companies that benefit when intelligence becomes cheaper and more widely available. Businesses with established customer relationships, proprietary data and strong competitive positions may be better able to translate those productivity improvements into sustainable earnings.

MOAT attempts to identify those durable franchises while incorporating valuation discipline. That’s particularly important because even an exceptional business can be a disappointing investment if purchased at too high a price.

The risk is that competitive advantages can erode, especially during major technological transitions. Morningstar’s estimates of economic moats and fair value are not guarantees, and the fund is not specifically designed to identify future AI beneficiaries.

Portfolio takeaway: MOAT provides a valuation-conscious approach to owning businesses with potentially durable competitive advantages, shifting the investment focus from simply building AI infrastructure toward capturing the lasting economic value it creates.

PAST PICKS: NOV. 27, 2025

BMO Equal Weight U.S. Health Care ETF (ZUH TSX)

Then: $71.48

Now: $82.69

Return: 16%

Total Return: 16%

iShares Core Canadian Government Bond Index ETF (XGB TSX)

Then: $19.60

Now: $18.99

Return: -4% Total

Return: -0.25%

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI NYSE)

Then: US$122.85

Now: US$148.49

Return: 21% Total

Return: 21%

Total Return Average: 12%