Is Oil's Rocky Run Going to Continue?
Oil advanced to a 10-month high in London as global fuel markets continued to tighten amid robust demand and supply curbs by top OPEC+ members.
Brent crude rose above US$91 a barrel Tuesday after hitting a new high for the year during the previous session. Diesel — the workhorse fuel of the global economy — is rallying on Russian plans to limit exports this month, pushing past $1,000 a ton in Europe.
Data published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries showed the scale of the looming oil supply crunch, with a potential shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day — the biggest in more than a decade.
“The oil industry feels a collective rally risk with a perception of — and actual — tightening,” said John Evans, an analyst at brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.
Oil futures have rallied by roughly 25 per cent since late June as fuel demand soars, while Saudi Arabia and Russia constrict supplies to bolster their petroleum revenues. The U.S. dollar tumbled the most in almost two months on Monday, making commodities priced in the currency more attractive for most buyers.
Nonetheless, prominent forecasters such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and RBC Capital Markets LLC say their core outlook doesn’t assume prices will reach $100 a barrel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish its monthly market report later Tuesday, with the International Energy Agency’s due Wednesday.
“The upward momentum is exhausted for now,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “Crude needs fresh cues to pick a direction. We may see a holding pattern of around $90 for Brent.”
- Brent for November settlement gained as much as 1.3 per cent to $91.82 a barrel, and traded at $91.79 as of 2:08 p.m. in London, the highest since mid-November
- West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose as much as 1.6 per cent to $88.69 a barrel, also the highest since November