Oil rose above US$81 a barrel, buoyed by general risk-on sentiment, as the first of a spate of supply-and-demand projections scheduled this week forecast a modest rise in U.S. production. 

Crude held its gains even after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report Tuesday estimated supply will exceed demand in the next two years, despite the unexpected production cut by OPEC+.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency also are scheduled to issue monthly reports later this week. 

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Despite the bearish government report, key market metrics are signaling renewed strength in the aftermath of OPEC+’s announced output cuts. The December-December spread — the difference between futures for the final month of this year and in 2024 — rallied to more than US$5 a barrel, up from US$2.53 three weeks ago.

“The oil market is going to remain tight and while China’s reopening has underwhelmed, they will do a lot better going forward and that should keep prices supported,” said Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda.


  • WTI for May delivery rose US$1.79 to settle at US$81.53 a barrel in New York
  • Brent for June settlement rose US$1.43 to settle at US$85.61

Russia’s seaborne oil exports collapsed last week, which could tighten markets further. Almost half a million barrels a day of crude supply from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region also remains halted, and there are signs more negotiations will be needed before those flows can resume.