Could see $100 crude, natural gas prices double if we get 'really cold weather early': BMO's Ollenberger
Oil rose with traders awaiting U.S. supply data that will show whether inventories tightened further at the Cushing, Oklahoma, crude storage hub.
U.S. crude futures rose 1.1 per cent on Tuesday, holding at the highest since 2014. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute’s inventory tally due later Tuesday will be closely watched after drawdowns at Cushing in recent weeks have led to huge moves in timespreads as traders pay premiums for more immediate supply. Supply and demand balances at the hub drive daily oil trading worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Analysts are expecting another decline in supplies at Cushing this week amid reduced production in the U.S., drilling moratoriums and increased demand. Fears of stockpiles falling below minimum operating levels have continued to push oil prices higher, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc.
Refiners “are drawing down on Cushing at a pretty incredible pace right now,” said Flynn. “We’re getting close to empty.”
Crude futures have surged in recent months with a shortage of natural gas and coal boosting demand for oil products. Larry Fink, chairman and chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., even said there’s a high probability that crude could hit US$100 a barrel. The global benchmark Brent is approaching its 2018 high of US$86.74 a barrel.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are due to gather next week to assess output policy. Nigeria joined fellow OPEC+ member Saudi Arabia this week in saying the group must resist pressure to raise oil production faster until the coronavirus pandemic abates.
- West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 89 cents to settle at US$84.65 a barrel in New York
- Brent for December settlement added 41 cents to end the session at US$86.40 a barrel
The crude market’s pricing structure remains deeply backwardated, a bullish pattern in which near-term prices are more costly than those further out. Brent’s prompt spread -- the difference between its nearest two contracts -- is at 75 cents a barrel after rallying to as high as 97 cents on Monday. The global benchmark crude is nearing its 2018-high of US$86.74 a barrel.
Traders also are keeping tabs on talks that eventually may help revive an Iranian nuclear accord, allowing a pickup in crude exports. Discussions between Tehran and the European Union are due to be held in Brussels on Wednesday, part of a drawn-out effort to clear the way for a wider diplomatic push.
- Saudi Aramco said oil-output capacity across the world is dropping quickly and companies need to invest more in production.
- U.S. refineries are enjoying the highest profit margins to turn crude oil into gasoline in four years for this time of the year, as demand for the fuel jumps.
- The Western world’s biggest oil companies likely just generated more cash than at any time since the Great Recession, and investors are about to find out what they’ll do with it.