(Bloomberg) -- One trader is defying the European Central Bank’s tough talk on inflation by betting that interest rates will be back at zero by this time next year.

If the wager comes off, it would return €56 million ($60.2 million) at zero cost, according to details of the options-based deal provided by two London-based traders. 

Markets are pushing back against the prospect of tighter financial conditions after two weeks of turmoil in the banking sector. The rout, which spread from the US to Europe and culminated in the takeover of beleaguered lender Credit Suisse Group AG, has raised the odds of a recession.

Despite these headwinds, the ECB hiked borrowing costs to 3% last week and pledged to sustain sustain their commitment to ensure core inflation — running at a record — is brought to heel. The market expects the deposit rate to be back at 3% by March 2024, after one final quarter-point hike by June.

The trader made the wager using options tied to three-month Euribor futures, the benchmark euro funding rate. The risk is that if policymakers were to go further and cut rates significantly below zero, the trade would start generating sizable losses.

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