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OTTAWA, Ontario, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Construction activity in Ontario is expected to rise through 2035, as strengthening residential construction activity combines with elevated levels of non-residential construction investment that are driven by a significant pipeline of major institutional, commercial, heavy industrial, and civil engineering projects.
BuildForce Canada today released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward highlight reports for the residential and non-residential construction sectors in Ontario, covering the forecast period from 2026 to 2035.
Funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program, the outlook calls for an initial slowdown in residential construction activity that has, in part, been driven by uncertainty created by the ongoing tariff dispute between Canada and the United States, but a period of sustained growth is projected in the medium and longer terms. Meanwhile, elevated levels of activity are projected in both engineering construction and the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building projects.
Residential construction investment is expected to slow in the short term, as demand for new housing remains constrained by lower immigration levels and evolving economic conditions, and in the Greater Toronto Area in particular, a surplus of unsold units. Investment in new-housing construction is projected to return to growth by 2028, when it is expected that activity will be driven by strong levels of construction in both single-detached and multi-unit housing. At the same time, investment in residential renovations and maintenance activity is projected to rise continuously over the forecast period.
By 2035, province-wide residential construction employment is expected to rise by 11% compared to 2025 levels, with gains greatest in new-housing construction and residential renovation activity.
In contrast, non-residential construction investment has risen notably since 2022 and is expected to continue growing into the late 2020s and then remain at those high levels into the early 2030s.
Investment in ICI buildings construction is expected to rise steadily, driven by planned investments in institutional and government buildings, including healthcare and education projects across multiple regions. Activity is projected to peak around 2030 before moderating as major projects conclude. Meanwhile, the commercial buildings component is expected to see significant growth across the forecast period, largely in response to previously high levels of population growth, while the outlook for industrial buildings remains subject to uncertainty related to trade conditions.
Engineering construction activity is expected to grow through the forecast period, driven by major transit projects in several regions, mining activity in the North, and a range of utility-sector investments, including nuclear generation and refurbishment projects. Growth in roads, highways, and bridges construction is comparatively more modest.
By 2035, non-residential construction employment is projected to increase by 5% compared to 2025 levels. Growth in ICI buildings construction and non-residential maintenance activity is expected to offset a decline in engineering construction employment as major projects move through peak stages and conclude.
“Ontario’s construction outlook reflects strong underlying demand across both residential and non-residential sectors,” says Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Although activity in the residential sector is projected to be constrained in the short term by key factors such as uncertainty created by the ongoing tariff dispute between Canada and the United States, by reductions in immigration levels, and, in some regions, an abundance of unsold multi-unit residential dwellings, the outlook is strongly positive in the middle and longer terms.”
“Meanwhile, construction activity in the non-residential sector is projected to rise into the late 2020s and remain elevated to the end of the forecast period as work continues on a long list of significant projects across all six regions.”
Although they are interconnected, Ontario’s six regions – Central, Eastern, Greater Toronto Area, Northeastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern – each feature discrete labour market conditions and can create complementary and competing demands for workers.
Construction activity in Central Ontario is expected to increase notably across the forecast period. Activity in the residential sector, which enters the forecast period on a downward trend, is projected to rise significantly after 2027 with renewed growth in new-housing activity and strong demand for residential renovations. Activity in the region’s non-residential sector, meanwhile, is expected to rise between 2027 and 2031, with ongoing work on major institutional and industrial projects. Activity in engineering construction is projected to be driven by major transit projects in Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, as well as a series of utility-sector projects. By 2034, employment is expected to rise in both the residential (+21%) and non-residential (+11%) sectors.
Eastern Ontario experienced a slight contraction in overall construction investment levels in 2025. A relatively unchanged volume of non-residential construction activity was offset by a moderate decline in the residential sector. Both are expected to grow across the outlook period, however. Increases in the residential sector are projected to be driven by growth in the new-housing component in 2027 and beyond. Demand over this period is strongest for single-detached housing units. The outlook also calls for investment in residential renovations to rise steadily. The region’s non-residential construction sector, meanwhile, continues to function at an historically high level. Construction is ongoing on a long list of major projects across both the engineering construction sector and in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings. Levels are projected to peak in 2030, after which they remain sustained at an elevated level to the end of the forecast period. Construction employment in the region is expected to grow by 2035, with gains expected in both the residential (+10%) and non-residential (+7%) sectors.
Construction activity contracted in the Greater Toronto Area in 2025, driven by a residential sector that continues to be affected by elevated costs, slowing population growth, and unsold condominium inventory. Non-residential construction, meanwhile, continues to be driven by a large volume of major projects that are underway in both the engineering construction sector (in the form of public transit systems, utilities projects, and work on roads, highways, and bridges projects) and in the construction of ICI buildings (on healthcare and education sector projects). The outlook calls for trends to diverge to 2035. After 2028, investment in the region’s residential sector is projected to return to growth. Activity in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, recedes from peak levels in 2029 as work concludes on known projects. Compared with 2025 levels, construction employment in the GTA is projected to rise in both the residential (+5%) and non-residential (+4%) sectors.
Northeastern Ontario saw construction investment levels rise in 2025, with gains in both the residential and non-residential sectors. The former was driven by strong demand for multi-unit construction activity, while the latter has seen growth in ICI buildings construction offset engineering construction levels that have slowed with the completion of several large mining projects. Activity in the residential sector is projected to grow across the outlook period, with increases projected for both new-housing construction and residential renovations. The outlook for the non-residential sector calls for investment levels to decline modestly into 2035 as both the ICI buildings and engineering construction components step down from peak levels. By 2035, residential construction employment in the region is projected to contract by 3% compared to 2025 levels, while employment in the non-residential sector is projected to rise by 1%.
In Northwestern Ontario, construction investment levels declined in 2025. Residential construction activity continues to slow after reaching its peak in 2021, while the non-residential sector saw the conclusion of key projects. The outlook calls for the sectors to chart different paths to 2035. The region’s residential sector is projected to expand over the forecast period, with growth concentrated in demand for new housing. Investment in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, is projected to rise to a peak in 2028 with ongoing work on several key mining projects. Levels contract thereafter and into 2035 as known projects conclude. Compared with 2025 levels, construction employment is projected to contract by 2% in the residential sector and by 5% in the non-residential sector.
Southwestern Ontario saw growth in non-residential construction activity offset a slight decline in the residential sector in 2025. Across the outlook period, investment in non-residential construction is projected to decline after 2027 as the sector steps back from peak levels recorded earlier in the forecast period. A strong outlook for the construction of ICI buildings is projected to offset slowdowns in engineering construction. In contrast, activity in the residential sector is expected to grow significantly after 2026 as growing demand for single-detached units more than outpaces slowing, but elevated, demand for multi-unit construction. Employment rises in both the residential (+10%) sector across the forecast period, but declines in the non-residential sector (-2%).
Addressing peak levels of demand across the province will be complicated by limited interregional mobility, given the high levels of construction demand forecast across all regions through the forecast period. An aging labour force could complicate matters further. By 2035, as many as 92,000 workers are projected to exit the industry due to retirement. When combined with the additional 34,100 workers required to keep pace with increasing demand over the forecast period, the industry could face hiring requirements of 126,100 workers by 2035.
These hiring requirements could be partially addressed by the expected recruitment of 98,800 new-entrant workers under the age of 30 from within the province over the forecast period. However, even with these projected additions, the industry could face a potential shortfall of 27,300 workers by 2035.
(Note that discrete analyses of the residential and non-residential labour force trends are available in their respective reports.)
“The overall labour force trends are now such that Ontario is projected to see more new entrants coming into the industry than there are retirees exiting the sector,” says Marc Arsenault, Business Manager and Secretary Treasurer of the Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario. “While that’s a strong positive, we cannot lose sight of the fact that training and retention will be key to keeping these workers in our sector and turning them into experienced journeypersons.”
Keeping pace with demand will require a combination of strategies, including maintaining local recruitment and training efforts, particularly among groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, hiring workers from other industries with the required skill sets, and targeting underemployed Canadians.
New apprenticeship registrations in Ontario’s largest construction trade programs rose to a record level in 2024, reflecting continued growth across key trades such as industrial mechanic (millwright), construction electrician, and carpenter. Meanwhile, overall program completion rates have remained relatively stable since 2021, with some trades experiencing notable increases and others contractions.
In 2025, there were approximately 76,880 women employed in Ontario’s construction industry. Of them, 33% worked on site, directly on construction projects. As a share of the 442,300 tradespeople employed in Ontario’s construction industry, however, women accounted for 6% of the 2025 workforce.
The Indigenous population is the fastest-growing population in Canada and therefore presents recruitment opportunities. In 2025, Indigenous Peoples accounted for 3.5% of Ontario’s construction labour force. That figure is notably larger than the 2.2% represented across the provincial labour force as a whole. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue its recruitment efforts and invest in initiatives that support long-term retention.
The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Immigrants are the primary driver of labour force growth in Ontario, with their share of the workforce rising steadily in recent years. Based on historical settlement patterns, the province is expected to welcome nearly 1.3 million new immigrants between 2026 and 2035, making these individuals a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force.
Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers to Canada could help Ontario’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers, to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.
For further information, contact James Raiswell, Director of Communications, BuildForce Canada, at raiswell@buildforce.ca or 343-998-1674.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Marc Arsenault
Business Manager and Secretary Treasurer
Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario
647-402-0390
Giovanni Cautillo
President
Ontario General Contractors Association
905-671-3969
Ian Cunningham
President
Council of Ontario Construction Associations
416-476-4774
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
403-620-3781
Tony Fanelli
Executive Director
Construction Labour Relations Association – Ontario
647-296-3402
Adam Melnick
Executive Director
Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario
647-354-4914
Andrew Pariser
Vice-President
RESCON
416-970-7665
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