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MONTREAL, Oct. 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- A new study from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), conducted with support from the Transition Accelerator, estimates an additional $670 billion in investments could flow into Canada between 2026 and 2030 from planned major projects.
Key findings:
The stakes are game changing for Canada and its small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Those investments could generate $443 billion in cumulative new economic activity for Canadian businesses, much of it occurring within the supply chains supporting these projects, including housing and civil infrastructure, defence, energy, mining, natural gas and AI data centres. Many Canadian businesses are eager to seize these opportunities, but not all are equally prepared to do so.
The study estimates the additional investment could raise Canada’s GDP by 4.1% above the baseline scenario by 2030 and require the participation of roughly 280,000 Canadian businesses. Given their overwhelming share of Canada’s business population, SMEs are expected to account for the majority of participating firms. To put the opportunity into context, that is equivalent to more than $10,000 in additional economic activity per Canadian over the five-year period.
“The stars are aligning for Canadian businesses. A wave of major projects, new technologies and changing ownership trends are opening the door to a decade of growth,” said Isabelle Hudon, President and CEO of BDC. “If we help entrepreneurs scale through acquisitions, partnerships and productivity gains, Canada can create a new generation of medium-sized and large companies that will power our economy for years to come.”
“Canada’s major-project boom won’t just build infrastructure. It can build the next generation of Canadian growth companies and really move the needle on the firm size mix across our country,” said Pierre Cléroux, Chief Economist at BDC. “The supply chain for these projects is critical, and it won’t be easy. But with the right support, SMEs are set to leverage these opportunities to invest in technology, scale faster than ever before and create lasting value for the economy long after the projects are completed.”
Five sectors driving the pipeline
The study identifies five key areas at the centre of Canada’s $670 billion major-project pipeline:
Getting there will require fast growth from Canadian SMEs, which will form the backbone of the supply chains behind these projects.
BDC surveyed 1,000 Canadian businesses, including 750 already involved in large projects and 250 interested in participating. The findings point to strong ambition among SMEs already in the market.
Two-thirds expect to increase their involvement over the next 24 months, rising to 88% among high-growth firms and 77% among businesses in technology and primary sectors. More than one-third say they could scale up, while many others say they could expand, though to a more limited extent.
A readiness gap, but a clear path forward
The study found a clear readiness gap between SMEs that derive most of their revenue from large projects and those that have more limited involvement in project delivery. Not surprisingly, larger SMEs in construction, technology and information services with greater experience in large projects appear much better positioned to take advantage of future opportunities. Complex tendering process and tight deadlines were identified as major barriers for even the most ambitious SMEs.
Smaller SMEs in sectors like retail and manufacturing were less likely to see opportunities for themselves in the boom. Here, perceived risk and cash constraints were highlighted as the main barriers for SMEs interested in opportunities but unsure of their path forward.
The ability to close the capacity gap is within reach. Canada’s SMEs need better information about upcoming opportunities, smaller contract lots, reduced financial or bonding requirements, more predictable payment terms and procurement processes adapted to help them rapidly escalate their participation and better reflect their operational realities.
For comparison purposes only, probability samples of 1,000 businesses would have a maximum margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About BDC, Canada’s bank for small- and medium-sized business owners
BDC focuses on small- and medium-sized business owners, providing them financing, investment, and advice. As Canada’s development bank, we also support entrepreneurs who don’t fit the traditional mold working with a network of partners and help develop underserved markets to unlock economic potential. Our mission is to build strong, resilient businesses that drive Canada’s economic growth. BDC is a perennial Canada’s Top 100 Employer and B Corp certified. Learn more at bdc.ca or connect with us on social media.
Media contact
mediainfo@bdc.ca
1 844 625-8321
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