(Bloomberg) -- India’s solar and wind deployment is forecast to jump more than 30% in 2024, a pace still not fast enough to meet its clean energy goal of 500 gigawatts by the end of this decade.

Capacity in 2024 is expected to rise by a record 16.7 gigawatts from nearly 13 gigawatts last year, driven by falling solar module prices and increasing clean energy procurement by industries, BloombergNEF said in a note on Thursday.

Renewable adoption has been dampened by factors including policy uncertainty, solar import restrictions and grid constraints.

At the end of 2023, India had 188 GW, which means it would need to add 44GW in each of the next seven years to reach Modi’s target.

Electricity demand, which is forecast to rise faster than in any other major economy, has already prompted India to announce a major expansion of its coal-fired power fleet. 

Wind in India last year gained the confidence of major power retailers, which signed purchase agreements from auctions combining the power source with solar. Turbine installations will likely rise 39% this year, BNEF analysts including Shantanu Jasiwal said in the report.  

In solar, the potential return of a trade barrier for importing modules could be a dampener. The so-called Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, which only includes makers based in India, was lifted for a year until end of March, and there’s currently a lack of clarity on its reinstatement.

Project developers hope to see the relaxation extended to benefit from cheaper imports, while local manufacturers are pushing for a return of the curbs.  

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.