(Bloomberg) -- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential bid draws support equally from President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, highlighting voters’ appetite for an alternative candidate but suggesting his impact on the 2024 election may be muted. 

The Monmouth University survey showed Kennedy costing both Biden and Trump 14% of their current bases of support. Among voters who said they would definitely vote for Kennedy, Biden loses 4% of his current support and Trump 3%.

“Kennedy’s name may be well-known, but his policy positions are not. However, it’s not clear that knowing those positions will move his support levels either up or down,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. 

In a contest that included Biden and Trump, 6% of voters surveyed by Monmouth University said they would definitely vote for Kennedy and 15% said they would probably cast a ballot for him. The survey, released Monday, found 26% would probably not vote for Kennedy and 48% told pollsters they definitely would not.


Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic and proponent of debunked conspiracy theories, is a member of one of America’s most prominent Democratic families, but left the party to carry out a long-shot third-party bid for president.

Murray said Kennedy “appears to be more of a placeholder for expressing some generalized dissatisfaction with the likely trajectory of the 2024 nomination process.”

Only one in four voters expressed enthusiasm for a Biden-Trump general election matchup, with 14% saying they were very enthusiastic about the scenario, 13% somewhat, 20% not too enthusiastic and 49% not at all.

In a rematch, Trump is doing a better job holding onto his 2020 supporters with 91% saying they will vote for him again compared to 85% of Biden voters who say they will back the Democrat. About half of the electorate, 49%, will definitely not vote for Biden and 48% will definitely not vote for Trump.

“There’s a desire among some Republicans to exact revenge for what they see as a stolen election. But for most voters, 2020 is an election they’d rather not have to relive,” Murray said.

The poll of 803 adults in the US was conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 by telephone. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points. 

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