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Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • Bloomberg Economics’ base case for the global recovery remains robust. But with the virus refusing to quit, the Fed preparing for liftoff, and China attempting to deflate a McMansion size real estate bubble, a lot could go wrong
  • The share of global wealth held by billionaires surged to a record during the Covid-19 crisis, according to a group founded by French economist Thomas Piketty
  • The ECB should stick with its ultra-supportive stance as long as the current bout of surging consumer prices appears to be temporary, the International Monetary Fund said
  • The U.K. is moving forward on trade engagement with individual American states, and stands ready to resume talks with Washington on a broader U.S.-U.K. trade deal, Secretary of State for International Trade Anne-Marie Trevelyan said
  • Olaf Scholz is about to become chancellor of an unhealthier German economy than the one he looked set to inherit when his party won elections in late September
    • German investor confidence deteriorates on new virus wave
  • China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in November, with both hitting records as external demand surged before the year-end holidays and domestic production rebounded on an easing power crunch
    • Separately, China’s policy makers moved to expand support for the nation’s economy
    • Some China Evergrande Group bondholders had yet to receive overdue coupon payments by the end of a monthlong grace period, signaling a possible default
  • The United Arab Emirates will move its weekend to Saturday and Sunday, breaking ranks with the rest of the Gulf region as it seeks to draw in global investment and business

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