The loonie’s rally is closer to its end than its start, according to David Rosenberg.
The Gluskin Sheff + Associates chief economist told BNN on Thursday that the Canadian dollar is very close to what he considers ‘fair value.’
“I would say that 78-to-80 cents is where it should be based on growth, based on interest rate differential, and based on commodity prices,” Rosenberg said.
“We’re almost there… if we break above that I will more gladly turn bearish on the currency, but right now I think 80 per cent of this up-move in the Canadian dollar from the recent lows is behind us.”
The Canadian dollar traded above 77 cents U.S. for the first time since Feb. 2 on Thursday as expectations for a July 12 interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada climbed.
Does that mean 80 U.S. cents is in the loonie’s future?
“Nothing says that you can’t overshoot to the upside and break above 80 cents [U.S.],” Rosenberg said.
“But does it have – at least at this stage - at least two-to-three cents upside. If we’re sort of chasing pennies in front of the steamroller, yeah, it probably has more upside right now. But we’re getting towards the tail end of this Canada trend rally in the loonie from my lens.”
Rosenberg maintained his prediction for an interest rate hike by summer’s end without committing definitively to July 12.
“I would not be surprised if they go in July. It’s not my call. I think they’ll go by the end of the summer. But if they were to go in July, I wouldn’t exactly fall off my chair,” Rosenberg said.
“A lot of people were saying after last Friday, that with inflation plunging and across the board with all these price measures the Bank of Canada pays attention to, the view is certainly ‘they can’t raise interest rates with the inflation numbers falling.’ If anything, in the past couple days the Bank has stepped up its rhetoric that they’re gonna move.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if they take back the two emergency rate cuts they engineered back in 2015, strictly because the emergency isn’t there anymore,” he added.