Economist who predicted last financial crisis warns of coming 'Greater Depression'
Famed economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, is calling for a global depression in the middle of the decade.
In an interview with BNN Bloomberg's Amanda Lang Tuesday, the author and New York University economist says the most likely economic scenario "is that of a "U-shaped recovery" and "there is also a risk of an L, what I call a greater depression, that's my baseline for the rest of the decade, but not this year."
He said that as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, both households and corporations will have to spend less and save more,causing a global investment slump and a global savings glut.
"That's a recipe for a very anemic recovery of the U.S., Canada, of the global economy," he said.
When asked if there was anything governments can do to stop a depression, Roubini said "unfortunately, I fear there are some major trends…what I call the 10 deadly Ds that are going lead us to a deadly depression sometime later in this decade. Only a matter of when – not whether."
Roubini's deadly Ds include debt, deficits, deglobalization, currency devaluation, and disruption in the environment - all of which he argues will push the global economy into a depression.
He said that even with monetary and fiscal stimulus, "the train wreck is a slow moving one," and that "policies cannot do much about it. They will actually exacerbate the debt imbalances" as "rising debt levels will explode."
On the Canadian economy, Roubini notes the country's position as fundamentally resilient and diversified, but not immune to the drop in oil prices.
Roubini said he sees up to a six-per-cent contraction in GDP in Canada this year, and also sees continued weakness for the U.S.
Notably, he criticizes U.S. equity investors who might be thinking: 'Even if earnings suck for the rest of the year,' it doesn't matter because a zero-rate policy environment remains favourable.
"The U.S. stock market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery, but I think it's delusional," he said.