Saudi Finance Minister Expects 2.6% GDP Growth in 2019
Saudi Arabia is pitching a sweeping plan to raise 1.6 trillion riyals (US$425 billion) for infrastructure and industry across the world’s leading oil-exporting nation.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who’s embarked on the biggest overhaul of the Saudi economy in its modern history, will speak later on Monday to an invite-only crowd in Riyadh. From early in the morning, lines snaked up to the Ritz-Carlton hotel, where visitors were greeted with futuristic screens and displays lit up in blue.
“It’s about diversification, it’s about private sector partnership, it’s about government-focused spending which we’ve determined to do over the next few years,” Economy and Planning Minister Mohammed Al Tuwaijri told Bloomberg Television. Saudi Arabia has “developed a few scenarios” for how to split spending between private investors and the state, he said, declining to give details.
Saudi Arabia’s push for investment in railways, airports and industrial projects by 2030 marks the latest effort by the biggest Arab economy to break its reliance on crude sales for government income. The kingdom could sign about 70 deals worth more than 200 billion riyals on Monday, according to Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih.
“It’s quite ambitious but it’s over a 10-year period so we’ve got the time to do it,’’ Al-Falih told Bloomberg Television on Saturday. “All of this will happen while we’re building our oil economy. We’re not stopping.”
Special rooms were set up inside the Ritz, with booths labeled by sector, for people to discuss investment. In November 2017, Saudi Arabia used the hotel to detain leading royals and businessmen in what it described as a crackdown on corruption.
Saudi Arabia is getting a makeover under the crown prince, who assumed his de facto leadership in 2017 vowing to steer the economy from its near-total dependence on crude by masterminding reforms known as Vision 2030. The kingdom’s infrastructure -- from roads to water supply -- was ranked 40th among 140 nations in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report.
But while higher public spending is projected to drive non-oil economic growth to 2.6 per cent in 2019, the pace remains below levels achieved before 2014, when crude prices collapsed, according to Bloomberg Economics. The share of the government’s oil income will grow to 68 per cent of total revenue this year.
With Saudi Arabia finding it harder to continue pumping fiscal stimulus into the economy, the infrastructure push will test investor faith after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi sparked global outcry. Al-Falih has said the program is expected to contribute US$320 billion to the Saudi economy by 2030, equivalent to almost half of the country’s gross domestic product last year, and create 11 new industries from aerospace to biomedicine.
The kingdom is planning to boost expenditure this year by 7 per cent, basing this year’s budget on an oil price estimated by Bloomberg Economics at as high as US$80 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude closed below US$62 in London on Friday.
“The room for fiscal spending is actually quite limited,” Jaap Meijer, head of research at Arqaam Capital Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Although fiscal policy is loosening a little bit into the new year, the scope of it has to be fairly limited.”
The program will link energy, mining and infrastructure projects and will include new defense industry initiatives seeking to bring technology and manufacturing to Saudi Arabia, Al-Falih said Saturday in Riyadh. The kingdom plans to restructure its power industry by separating ownership of power plants from the high-voltage lines used for transmission across the country and from the connections to homes and offices.
Known as the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, the planned investment includes some projects that have already started and combines efforts across different industries. For example, the country has long planned to reform its electricity industry.
Some of Saudi Aramco projects will also come under the umbrella of the new program, including an industrial park on the Persian Gulf coast and a plan with Saudi Basic Industries Corp. to transform oil straight into chemicals, Al-Falih said.
Nabil Al-Amoudi, the Saudi minister of transportation, said a new airport for Riyadh, the capital, is also under consideration. The kingdom additionally plans to refurbish and expand five airports, and build 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) of railways, he said.