Walt Disney Co.’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be one of the biggest movies of the year, but maybe not quite as big as originally expected.

The film, which officially debuts Friday, is projected to take in US$160 million to US$190 million in its first three days, according to Boxoffice Pro. That forecast is down from as much as US$225 million earlier in the week, before a rush of tepid reviews from critics. On the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the forecast has declined about 12 per cent to US$205.9 million.

Predicting the box-office performance of films is notoriously tricky. And it’s risky to bet against Disney’s marketing muscle: The world’s largest entertainment company has been promoting the release for months. Still, the opening seems likely to fall short of the past two movies in the saga: The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi.

Estimates for The Rise of Skywalker were initially higher based on early audience reaction. Attendees at the premiere in Los Angeles on Monday gushed about the film on social media, and presales on ticketing sites have been strong. Fandango, for example, said purchases were pacing similar to 2017’s The Last Jedi, which delivered US$220 million in its opening weekend.

Forecasts have been coming down this week after the film fared poorly with critics, scoring just 57 per cent approval on Rotten Tomatoes, a website that aggregates reviews. Anything below 60 per cent is considered “rotten.”

Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro, said he thinks many of the ticket presales may be for screenings after Sunday, during the Christmas holiday week, and thus won’t count in the opening-weekend results.

Fan Dismay

In contrast, The Last Jedi was a hit with critics. But it also irked some fans, who didn’t feel like the storylines and character development stayed true to the Star Wars ethos.

“This week’s mixed reviews have emphasized the likelihood that casual fans may be waiting to hear word of mouth from their own peers before deciding to see the film,” Robbins said.

Disney, which typically forecasts conservatively, said earlier in the week that it was looking at an opening weekend of US$160 million or more. Exhibitor Relations Co., another forecaster, has kept its estimate steady at US$191 million. Box Office Mojo, meanwhile, expects US$215 million.

The Rise of Skywalker caps what has been a momentous year for Disney and the Star Wars brand. The film still looks to be the seventh released by Disney in 2019 that will exceed US$1 billion in total ticket sales. That’s an unprecedented accomplishment for the company, which has already topped US$10 billion in total box office worldwide.

Theme Parks

Disney also opened two Star Wars-themed lands at its resorts in Anaheim, California, and Orlando, Florida, this year. And it’s built a following for The Mandalorian, a Star Wars TV series that serves as the centerpiece of the new Disney+ streaming service.

Disney has worked to get younger people interested in the Star Wars brand. Last week, the company offered a sneak peek at the new film within the wildly popular video game Fortnite, for example.

It’s also relying on Star Wars movie marathons to build excitement, and fans have been lined up for days on Hollywood Boulevard waiting to see the film.

The first Star Wars picture, in 1977, was a global phenomenon. Each of the films in that trilogy, and in a second one in the early 2000s, ended up producing higher tickets sales in its opening weekend than its predecessor, according to the Numbers website.

The Force Awakens, the first Disney produced film in the series, set box-office records in 2015. But The Last Jedi made less money. And a stand-alone film on the Han Solo character bombed last year.

Star Wars aside, Disney has enjoyed its best year ever at the box office, fuelled by megahits such as Avengers: Endgame and The Lion King. The rest of the industry hasn’t been so fortunate. Overall box-office revenue is down 5.4 per cent from 2018, when ticket sales generated a record US$11.9 billion domestically.