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Oct 16, 2018

Stocks rally as earnings overshadow trade, political risks

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, May 14, 2018. U.S. stocks edged higher as trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies showed signs of abating.

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U.S. stocks gained the most in more than six months as corporate earnings provided a respite from tensions over trade and geopolitics. The dollar declined.

The S&P 500 surged more than 2 per cent, all 30 members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced and small caps in the Russell 2000 Index notched the best gain since the day after the 2016 election. The Nasdaq Composite saw its biggest gain since March as UnitedHealth Group bolstered health-care firms and Adobe’s forecast lifted software makers. Technology stocks looked set to extend gains in the futures session as Netflix rallied on a surge in net subscribers. IBM fell in late trading as its revenue missed targets.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 170.27 points to close at 15,579.74, despite most of Canada's major cannabis players finishing Tuesday in the red.

The dollar held near a two-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield traded around 3.15 per cent as data showed U.S. factory production expanded in September. Oil edged higher amid tensions between the Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over the disappearance of a prominent journalist.

“The third quarter, which is now underway, would be the first sign if you’re looking for a smoking gun for either tariffs or tightening conditions,” Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, said by phone. “People at this point want to be relieved or are feeling that things aren’t as bad as last week suggested.”

Better results at the start of earnings season are giving many investors breathing room from concerns that a slowdown could be on the horizon. Netflix Inc. becomes the first large technology company to report after today’s close, while minutes from the latest Fed meeting should offer more clues a day later. In the background, traders are still grappling with continuing U.S.-China trade war rhetoric and geopolitical strains.

Elsewhere, the pound climbed as leaders struck a conciliatory tone a day after Brexit negotiations broke down. The Turkish lira rose following seven days of gains after the country released U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson on Friday. In Asia, Japan’s equities outperformed, while Chinese shares retreated.

Here are some key events coming up this week:

APEC finance ministers meet in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. China’s new yuan loans may have risen to 1.36 trillion yuan (US$196 billion) in September from August’s 1.28 trillion yuan as officials sought to buoy economic growth. Third-quarter GDP for China comes Friday, with headline growth forecast to slow to 6.6 per cent year on year from 6.7 per cent, in addition to last month’s retail sales and factory output. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting are due on Wednesday, with investors focused on projections for further interest rate rises. Netflix is among companies reporting this week. Euro-area governments, including Italy, must turn in fiscal budget proposals to the European Commission by midnight Monday.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index rose 2.2 per cent to 2,809.83 as of 4 p.m. New York time, the most since March 26. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 2.6 per cent, the biggest rise since March 26. The Russell 2000 Index gained 2.4 per cent, the most since November 9, 2016. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9 per cent, the most since March 26. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.6 per cent, the most since April 5. The MSCI Emerging Market Index gained 1.2 per cent.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1 per cent. The euro rose 0.1 per cent to US$1.1585. The British pound gained 0.3 per cent to US$1.3189. The Japanese yen dipped 0.4 per cent to 112.18 per dollar.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady at 3.15 per cent. Germany’s 10-year yield dipped one basis points to 0.49 per cent, the lowest in almost two weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 1.624 per cent.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2 per cent at US$71.91 a barrel. Gold fell 0.2 per cent to US$1,228.20 an ounce.