(Bloomberg) -- Thailand and Indonesia are at risk of losing a special trade status that gives developing economies preferential access to the U.S. market, according to Maybank Kim Eng Research.
Thailand is the second-biggest beneficiary of the decades-old program, known as the Generalized System of Preferences, while Indonesia is the fourth-largest, Maybank analysts led by Chief Economist Suhaimi Ilias said in a note Friday. The U.S. recently dropped India and Turkey from a list of GSP countries.
The U.S. review of Thailand’s status involves market access for American pork and worker rights. For Indonesia, it includes intellectual property rights and trade and investment barriers.
Other highlights from the report:
- Major exports for Thailand under GSP include air conditioner components, rubber gloves, processed food, non-alcoholic beverages, motorcycles, reading lenses; for Indonesia under GSP, rubber tires, jewelry and chemicals: note
- Maybank sees U.S. using currency manipulation and undervaluation labels, GSP removal threats to potentially extract trade concessions or win upper hand in U.S.-China trade war
- “Vietnam, for example, appears to be turning increasingly cautious in its dealings with China’s trade and investments, given the increased U.S. scrutiny for fear of being perceived as a backdoor,” Maybank said
- Thailand’s goods trade with the U.S. was $48.3 billion last year, while for Indonesia it was $31.1 billion
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