First Look With Surveillance: China Stimulus, Jackson Hole
After a rough start to bank earnings season, we’ve got a pair of beats this morning as CIBC and Toronto-Dominion exceeded expectations despite setting aside more funds for loans that could go bad. Loan growth is a common denominator; including a jump in mortgage balances at CIBC and record credit card activity in TD’s Canadian business. But it’s the stateside franchise that provided the most profit growth for TD. And if that bank gets its way, its U.S. business will become even more important: TD reiterated today that it’s hoping to close the US$13.4-billion takeover of First Horizon in the first quarter of its next fiscal year.
RECESSION FEARS NOT SHOWING UP IN JOBS MARKET
For all the consternation about an economic downturn (look no further than those provisions at the banks), the jobs market is sending a different signal. Statistics Canada today said job vacancies hit an all-time high of 1,037,900 in June. Worth highlighting at this time when we’re hearing constant warnings about how the health-care system is holding up: StatsCan’s data show vacancies in that sector (and social assistance) surged 40.8 per cent year-over-year to a new high of 149,700.
U.S. futures are suggesting there will be gains at the start of trading in New York as new stimulus measures in China appear to be providing a partial offset to uncertainty about what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will say in his speech tomorrow. China’s new fiscal supports includes more funding for infrastructure projects. But, as our Bloomberg News partners are pointing out, economists are dubious that the latest efforts will make a meaningful difference in attaining what now looks like an out of reach growth target this year. Back to Powell’s upcoming speech: ex-Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart joins us at 4:15 p.m. EDT to help set the stage.
IN CONVERSATION WITH CAMECO’S CEO
The uranium miner’s shares surged the most since last October yesterday after Japan changed its tune on nuclear power. Tim Gitzel is scheduled to speak with us at 3:30 p.m. EDT for more insight into nuclear’s role in a world seized by energy worries and how this might guide Cameco’s production strategy in the years ahead.
OTHER NOTABLE STORIES
- Dollar Tree slashed its full-year profit forecast this morning as a result of what its chief executive described as “an investment in pricing” that will hurt its margins. We’ll gauge what this could mean for Dollarama when it reports in the coming weeks.
- BRP published yet another update last night on the cyberattack that targeted its systems. Now the Ski-Doo maker is saying additional employee information was accessed, including computer credentials.
- In a letter to Peloton shareholders today, CEO Barry McCarthy spun positive: “I think Q4 will have been the high water mark for write-offs and restructuring charges related to inventory and supply chain issues and the beginning of the comeback story for Peloton,” he wrote. Unfortunately for him, investors don’t appear to be so sure: the bike-maker’s shares are sliding in pre-market trading. Perhaps that’s because of a revenue forecast for this quarter that falls way short of the average estimate.
- Salesforce has cut its full-year forecasts for revenue and adjusted earnings per share, and also projected revenue for the current quarter that would miss the average analyst estimate. None of that is an encouraging signal about enterprise spending trends. In a release, co-CEO Bret Taylor said Salesforce is facing a "more measured buying environment."
- Nvidia's second-quarter performance landed as the chip maker telegraphed in its warning earlier this month. So the real news value is in the outlook, where Nvidia forecast revenue that would fall a billion dollars short of the average estimate as demand for its gaming and professional visualization technology fall victim to an inventory overhang.
- Notable data: Canadian manufacturing sales (flash estimate); payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies; U.S. initial jobless claims and GDP (Q2 second reading)
- Notable earnings: CIBC (800 call), Toronto-Dominion Bank (1330 call), Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Peloton Interactive, Gap
- 1400: Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland holds media avail in Edmonton after touring Air Products hydrogen production facility
- Tesla begins trading with three-for-one stock split in effect