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Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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Stephen Poloz is leaving Bay Street guessing about what the Bank of Canada will do on July 11. While the market was hoping the central bank governor would tip his hand in Victoria, B.C. on whether he’ll hold or hike at the next policy meeting, his remarks made it clear the BoC is grappling with uncertainty. “These days there is a litany of things we simply do not know,” he said, going on to list trade risk, new mortgage rules and household debt as complicating factors. “This is why we say that the Bank is particularly data-dependent right now.”

Implied probability of the Bank of Canada raising to 1.5 per cent next month is little changed at 53.9 per cent. This morning we’ll focus on what could tilt the bank one way or the other before then.

Poloz keeps Bay Street guessing on next rate decision

Stephen Poloz is leaving Bay Street guessing about what the Bank of Canada will do at its next meeting July 11. While the market was hoping the central bank governor would tip his hand in Victoria, B.C. on whether he’ll hold or hike at the next policy meeting, his remarks made it clear the central bank is grappling with uncertainty. David Fingold, vice president and portfolio manager, Dynamic Funds, joins Paul Bagnell to discuss.

TRUDEAU MEETS WITH BUSINESS TITANS

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is sitting down with three of Canada’s top business leaders this morning with separate meetings lined up with BCE CEO George Cope, Toronto-Dominion Bank CEO Bharat Masrani and Bank of Nova Scotia CEO Brian Porter. “The PM often meets with business leaders to discuss how Canada can be more competitive and how we can foster more investment and jobs for the benefit of all Canadians,” a spokesperson for Trudeau told us this morning.

HARPER HEADING TO D.C.

An incredible development reported by CTV News' Joyce Napier last night. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper is back in a big way, with CTV News learning he’s expected to visit the White House the day after Canada’s tariff countermeasures take effect. As Napier put it on CTV National News, “Harper is going it alone, seemingly blindsiding the current Canadian government.” We’ve got her full report.

IN CONVERSATION WITH ROY GORI

We’ve got an exclusive today with Roy Gori.  Our first chat with him since he took the reins at Manulife Financial on Oct. 1. It’s been a choppy ride for investors since then; today we’re looking forward to greater insight into his plan to tighten capital control and his view of the world.

DIRTY MONEY

Fresh off a scathing report detailing rampant money laundering in British Columbia’s casinos, Former RCMP Deputy Commissioner Peter German is calling on the B.C. government to take a closer look at how organized crime has allegedly infiltrated the province’s real estate industry. That’s where we’ll pick up our coverage today.

WASTED POINTS

Fascinating research published today by CIBC on how Canadians aren’t taking full advantage of their reward points. According to the bank, Canadians – on average – have almost 49,000 points on their main credit card, while 49 per cent of respondents to the CIBC survey said those points are being collected aimlessly and more than one-third of respondents said they almost never cash their points. CTV's Chief Financial Commentator Pattie Lovett-Reid will have all the details, plus insight on how those points can go toward registered savings plans.

 OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

-Amazon is getting into the pharmacy business, announcing today it’s buying PillPack for an undisclosed sum. Rite-Aid shares are down 3 per cent pre-market. CVS is down 7 per cent. Walgreens is down 6 per cent. 

-Empire Company is raising its annual dividend to 44 cents/share from 42 after fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted profit easily exceeded estimates.

-Magna International announced today it’s bulking up its automotive lighting business with the purchase of Turin-based OLSA for 230-million euros.

-The federal government has blocked KGHM’s Ajax mine proposal in Kamloops, citing the risk of “significant adverse environment effects”

-We’re speaking with the head of Canada’s newest public company this morning. IPL Plastics CEO Alan Walsh joins us at 9:45 a.m. ET, just minutes after he rings the opening bell at the TSX. IPL raised $157.5 million in its IPO, with proceeds mostly earmarked for debt repayment.

-Bloomberg News’ Danielle Bochove just returned from a trip to Quebec where she got a first-hand look at how the cross-border tariff fight is playing out at Rio Tinto-Alcan, where the idea that Canada poses a national security risk is arguably best debunked. She’ll join Andrew Bell on Commodities to explain. 

-It will be a dividend and buyback bonanza from the biggest U.S. banks this afternoon when results of the second stage of the Federal Reserve’s stress test are released at 4:30 p.m. ET.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-Notable earnings: Empire Company, Shaw Communications, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike

-Notable data: U.S. GDP

-10:00 a.m. ET: Canada Revenue Agency briefing on international tax compliance

-11:00 a.m. ET: Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr launches Generations Energy Report in Winnipeg (plus Q&A)

-12:25 p.m. ET: U.S. President Donald Trump participates in groundbreaking event at Foxconn site in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin

-1:00 p.m. ET: Alberta releases Annual Report, Finance Minister Joe Ceci holds news conference

-4:20 p.m. ET: Provincial and territorial health ministers hold news conference after meeting in Winnipeg.

Every morning BNN's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN Bloomberg's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnnbloomberg.ca/subscribe