The Daily Chase: Rogers-Shaw deal faces Fed pushback; Oil under pressure

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Jan 4, 2023

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Competition Commissioner Matthew Boswell isn’t giving up the fight in his quest to quash Rogers Communications’ planned $20-billion takeover of Shaw Communications. Boswell is taking that fight to the Federal Court of Appeal, which will conduct a one-day hearing in Ottawa on Jan. 24, as Boswell argues the Competition Tribunal made errors in its ruling, which helped clear the path for the mega-deal to go through. The timing is also somewhat significant – that Jan. 24 date is exactly a week before the deal deadline, though said deadline can be extended (albeit with the consent of Quebecor, which has agreed to buy Shaw’s Freedom Mobile assets for $2.85 billion, should the takeover gain regulatory approval.)

MARKETS (RE)ATTEMPT REBOUND

Now, this newsletter got burned yesterday making a similar observation before things abruptly changed course, but markets can make fools of us all. In any case, U.S. equity market futures are pointing to a higher open, which would track with the broadly positive day we’ve seen on European and Asian indices. Whether that holds is again, anyone’s guess – I would say let’s keep an eye on things once we hit 2 p.m. EST, when we get the minutes from the U.S. Fed, which could shed greater light on how the central bank is viewing the evolving inflation picture and how best to respond with interest rate increases, though we also have some manufacturing data and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) openings report from south of the border hitting the tape in the interim.

OIL EXTENDS DECLINES AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH

Sort of an inauspicious start to the 2023 for oil, which is already down 6.5 per cent just two trading sessions into the new year. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is down another 2.5 per cent this morning to dip below US$75 per barrel, extending yesterday’s losses (which were the steepest since November.) A couple of things at play here – concerns over a U.S. recession and the impact of the rising case counts in China after Beijing scrapped a slate of COVID measures seem to be the main drivers of the latest declines. That general price weakness was on full display during yesterday’s trade on the TSX – the three main drags on the index were Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor and Cenovus, collectively taking 57 points of the table as the major millstones of the day.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

  • Canfor is extending temporary production curtailments in British Columbia amid continued weak market conditions, which will further cut 21 million board feet of production on top of the 150 million board feet previously announced.
  • Salesforce is cutting 10 per cent of its workforce, admitting it hired too many people as the economy headed toward a downturn. The company says it anticipates up to US$2.1 billion worth of charges in connection with the restructuring.
  • We’ll be keeping an eye on shares of Apple today after yesterday’s nearly four per cent drop sunk the iPhone maker’s cap below US$2-trillion.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

  • 10:00 a.m. EST U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 2:00 p.m. EST - FOMC Minutes