(Bloomberg) -- Bold and non-binding national climate commitments are more credible and lead to greater change than less ambitious but binding pledges, according to a new paper by researchers at the University of California at San Diego.
Authors interviewed 829 climate negotiators and scientists from over 150 countries to reach that conclusion, providing some of the first evidence to support the logic of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the paper published in Nature Climate Change on Friday concluded. The novel study involves the largest and most diverse sample of climate policymakers ever polled systematically.
The Paris Agreement saw most governments across the planet pledge to take steps to keep global warming below 2°C and ideally at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. The deal was designed around the idea that, by making pledges non-binding, governments would have more flexibility to decide what they were willing and able to implement, the research paper said. Periodic reviews are also forcing countries to step up their ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
This is a significant change from past decades, when climate cooperation was characterized by lots of diplomatic talks, but not much real action, the authors noted. “That is now changing, possibly quickly,” they wrote.
The European Union’s climate plan, which includes cutting emissions 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels and going to net zero by mid-century, was ranked as the most ambitious and also the most effective by respondents inside and outside the region. China came second, both in ambition and in compliance with its own pledges.
The US ranked among the lowest, together with Saudi Arabia and Russia, although the survey was conducted between September 2020 and January 2021, just as former President Donald Trump was leaving office and President Joe Biden was taking over. Since then, the US has passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which is being heralded as the most significant American climate legislation ever.
To be sure, when pledges are evaluated against what scientists say is necessary to avoid catastrophic warming, they still fall short. Without increased government action and with only current policies in place, the world is heading to a warming of 2.7°C, nonprofit Climate Action Tracker said in June, before the new US climate law was passed. Even if current targets are fulfilled, the world will warm by 2.4°C, according to the nonprofit.
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