The US Midterms Are Happening Now. Here Are the Key Primaries to Watch

(Bloomberg) -- Here are the key dates ahead in the 2022 midterm elections, as Democrats try to hold onto and even expand razor-thin majorities in the US House and Senate and Republicans weigh the influence of former President Donald Trump.

May 17 — Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon

• Pennsylvania — Former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick is vying with Trump-endorsed celebrity physician Mehmet Oz and late-surging Fox News commentator Kathy Barnette to keep the Senate seat in GOP hands with the retirement of Pat Toomey. On the Democratic side, front-runner Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman was temporarily sidelined with a mild stroke, but his hospitalization the weekend before the primary likely won’t hurt his standing.

• North Carolina — Republican party leaders oppose the re-nomination of the youngest member of Congress, 26-year-old Representative Madison Cawthorn, who has been enmeshed in controversy and legal fights since his election but still leads in the polls. They are backing state Senator Chuck Edwards. North Carolina’s senior senator, Richard Burr, is retiring and Representative Ted Budd has a wide lead for the Republican Senate nomination. Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is leading among Democrats.

• Idaho — Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little is being challenged by the Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, who has been criticized for addressing a conference hosted by a white nationalist. 

• Kentucky — The only Democrat representing Kentucky in Congress, John Yarmuth, is retiring and a pair of Louisville-area state lawmakers, state Senator Morgan McGarvey, and state Representative Attica Scott, are vying to succeed him and keep the seat Democratic.

• Oregon — The primary for governor is a contest between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic party. The liberal Tina Kotek, a former speaker of the state House, is running against moderate Tobias Read, the state treasurer.

May 24 — Georgia, Alabama, Texas runoff, Arkansas

• Georgia — The Republican gubernatorial primary pits incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, who angered Trump by refusing to overturn the state’s 2020 presidential election results, and Trump-endorsed former Senator David Perdue. The winner will go up against Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost a tight race to Kemp in 2018. The Republican Senate primary features Heisman Trophy-winner Herschel Walker in his first political run. He’s vying to face incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. Some leading Republicans have openly worried that Walker will lose in a general election that will highlight his acknowledged battles with mental illness and alleged spousal abuse.

• Alabama — Republican Richard Shelby’s retirement opens up one of the state’s Senate seats. Trump initially endorsed Representative Mo Brooks for the Republican nomination, but later retracted. Other competitive candidates include Shelby's former chief of staff Katie Britt and businessman Michael Durant.

• Texas Runoff — Some races were left unsettled after the March 1 primaries. The Republican nomination for attorney general is between Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and incumbent Ken Paxton. The race to be the Democratic candidate for Texas’s 28th district is between longtime incumbent Representative Henry Cuellar and progressive Jessica Cisneros. 

• Arkansas — Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a former Trump White House press secretary and daughter of former Governor Mike Huckabee, is running for governor unopposed on the Republican side.   

June 7 — California, New Jersey, Iowa, South Dakota, Montana, Mississippi and New Mexico

• California — This heavily Democratic state won't tip the balance of power in Washington, but Governor Gavin Newsom is up for re-election after fending off a recall last year. The state is losing a congressional seat for the first time in its history due to redistricting.

• New Jersey — Incumbent Democratic Representative Tom Malinowski's 7th Congressional District is the only New Jersey seat likely to be flipped. Thomas Kean Jr., state senate minority leader, is the front-runner among Republicans. He's been endorsed by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

• Iowa — The winner of the Republican primary for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District will face incumbent Representative Cindy Axne, the only Democrat in Iowa’s congressional delegation.

• South Dakota — Governor Kristi Noem is coasting to another Republican nomination over state Representative Steve Haugaard.  Republican John Thune, the Senate minority whip, faces token opposition in the primary and will then go up against Brian Bengs, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.  

• Montana — Redistricting gave Montana a second representative in Congress. The new district is drawn to favor Republicans. Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, who has been endorsed by Trump, is facing off against former state Senator Albert Olszewski.

• Mississippi — All four House districts have contested primaries after redistricting. Democratic Representative Bennie Thompson, chair of the House inquiry of the Jan. 6 riot, has one competitor. Republican Steven Palazzo, who was accused in an Office of Congressional Ethics report last year of improperly spending campaign money — allegations he denies — has drawn six.

• New Mexico — Redistricting made the incumbent Republican Representative Yvette Herrell's district slightly more favorable to Democrats. Herrell flipped the seat in the last cycle and will likely go up against Gabe Vasquez, a Democratic city councilor, in the general. 

June 14 — Nevada, Maine, North Dakota and South Carolina

• Nevada — In the Senate race, vulnerable Democrat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has been critical of Biden as she prepares for a general election against either Trump-endorsed former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the grandson of former Senator Paul Laxalt, or Army veteran Sam Brown. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is unopposed in the primary, but is expected to have a tough race against the Republican victor. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has an endorsement from Trump, but former Senator Dean Heller and North Las Vegas mayor John Lee are also in the running.

• Maine — The first female governor of Maine, Democrat  Janet Mills, is seeking re-election and holds only a slight lead in polls over presumptive Republican candidate and former Governor Paul LePage, whom she defeated in 2018.

• North Dakota — Don't expect any shakeups in this heavily Republican state. Incumbent Republican Senator John Hoeven is expected to win another term, as is the state's sole representative Republican Kelly Armstrong.

• South Carolina — Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, is seeking re-election and has a wide lead in fundraising over all three of the Democrats seeking that party’s nomination, led by state Representative Krystle Matthews. 

June 21 — Virginia

• The state's redistricting process put vulnerable Democrats in more perilous positions. Incumbent Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, won the 2020 general election with 50.8% of the vote before her district became more Republican friendly. 

June 28 — New York, Illinois, Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah

• New York — A last minute redistricting ruling has thrown the New York primary into disarray. Two long-serving representatives are slated to face off in the 12th District: Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney. Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul is looking to keep her job, and likely will. On the Republican side, Representative Lee Zeldin is favored over Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy Giuliani, and Rob Astorino, who previously sought the seat.

• Illinois — Longtime Representative Bobby Rush is retiring after 30 years representing Chicago's south side. Seventeen Democrats are running to replace him. Front-runners include Pat Dowell, who previously ran to be Illinois secretary of state, businesswoman Karin Norington-Reaves, and Jonathan Jackson, a professor and son of Jesse Jackson.

• Colorado — Representative Lauren Boebert, a Trump-endorsed acolyte, is facing a primary challenge from state Senator Don Coram. Although she won in the general election with only 51.4% of the vote in 2020, redistricting has made it a more safely Republican seat.

• Oklahoma —  Incumbent Republican Senator James Lankford is facing a challenge from Jackson Lahmeyer, who is backed by several Republicans who sought to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Representative Markwayne Mullin, and former Trump Environmental Protection Agency administrator Scott Pruitt, are leading among the 13 Republicans vying for the nomination to replace retiring Republican Senator James Inhofe.

• Utah — Republican incumbent Senator Mike Lee faces two challengers but is expected to win. Democrats opted to back Evan McMullin, an independent, making it the first Senate election in Utah's history without a Democrat on the ballot. The Senate seat, along with the four House seats, are expected to stay Republican. 

July 19 — Maryland

• The race for governor is open as Republican Larry Hogan is term-limited. Seeking to succeed him in the deeply Democratic state are 10 candidates, including two former members of the Obama Cabinet: Labor Secretary Tom Perez and Education Secretary John King.  

Aug. 2 — Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Washington 

• Arizona — The Republican Senate primary pits state Attorney General Mark Brnovich against Blake Masters, who is backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, and businessman Jim Lamon. The winner will face Democratic Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly who has also been critical of Biden. Trump has not endorsed in the GOP race.

• Michigan — Incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is likely to win another term. Republicans are fractured between former Detroit police chief James Craig, businessman Perry Johnson and Garrett Soldano, a chiropractor who led protests against Whitmer's coronavirus policies. Republican Representative Peter Meijer faces a primary challenge with Trump-backed John Gibbs after being openly critical of the former president.

• Missouri — The primary to replace retiring Republican Senator Roy Blunt includes former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned from office in 2018 due to sexual misconduct allegations — and now faces allegations of child abuse —  and Representative Billy Long. On the Democratic side, one of the candidates is Anheuser-Busch heiress Trudy Busch Valentine.

Aug. 4  — Tennessee

• Incumbent Democratic Representative Jim Cooper, who served for nearly two decades, announced his retirement after his Nashville district was redrawn from favoring Democrats by 9 points to favoring Republicans by 15. Beth Harwell, the former Tennessee state House speaker is expected to win on the Republican side after two candidates, including Trump State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus, were removed from the ballot.

Aug. 9 — Wisconsin, Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont

• Wisconsin — Republican Senator Ron Johnson is considered one of the most endangered Republican incumbents. The Democrats vying to replace him include Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Alex Lasry, an executive with the NBA Milwaukee Bucks and son of team owner Marc Lasry, a venture capitalist. Democratic Governor Tony Evers barely won in 2018 and will have a tough battle for re-election in a year that is favoring Republicans. Rebecca Kleefisch, a former lieutenant governor, is favored to win the GOP nomination.

• Connecticut — Governor Ned Lamont and Senator Richard Blumenthal face minimal opposition in this heavily Democratic state.

• Minnesota — A slew of candidates from both parties are vying to fill the 1st District seat left vacant by the death of Republican Representative Jim Hagedorn, though it’s favored to stay in GOP hands. Meanwhile, eight Republicans are seeking the nomination to take on Democratic Governor Tim Walz. 

• Vermont — Representative Peter Welch holds an early lead for the Democratic nomination to fill the seat of retiring Senator Patrick Leahy.

Aug. 13 — Hawaii

• Senator Brian Schatz appears poised to keep the seat in Democratic hands. 

Aug. 16 — Wyoming, Alaska

• Wyoming — The only House race in the sparsely populated state is also one of the nation’s most closely watched as Representative Liz Cheney fends off Trump-backed backlash for her work on the committee investigating Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.

• Alaska — The single House race in Alaska, to replace the late Don Young, features a possible comeback for 2008 vice presidential nominee and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who is hoping the political brand she pioneered will return her to office. Senator Lisa Murkowski is facing a primary challenge by Kelly Tshibaka, who was endorsed by Trump because of Murkowski's vote to convict him in his second impeachment trial.

Aug. 23 — Florida

• Republican incumbent Senator Marco Rubio will likely face Representative Val Demings in a hotly contested election in November. The governorship is also on the ballot but incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis is not facing serious opposition. Democrats will choose between Representative Charlie Crist, who is favored, state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and state Senator Annette Taddeo.

Sept. 6 — Massachusetts

• Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary for governor and is favored to succeed retiring Republican Governor Charlie Baker.

Sept. 13 — Delaware, New Hampshire, Rhode Island

• Delaware — Delaware only has one congressional district, and incumbent Democratic Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is favored to win in the president’s home state. 

• New Hampshire — New Hampshire’s Republican primary to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan includes Harvard University lecturer and founder of Kelan Capital LLC Vikram Mansharaman, state Senator Chuck Morse, and former executive director of the Bitcoin Foundation, Bruce Fenton.

• Rhode Island — Incumbent Representative David Cicilline is expected to be re-elected. Redistricting slightly changed the makeup of the 2nd District, though it's still expected to stay Democratic. Jim Langevin, the incumbent, isn't seeking re-election and several candidates are running including Sarah Morgenthau, a US Commerce Department official, state General Treasurer Seth Magaziner, journalist Omar Bah and former state Representative David Segal.

Nov. 8

• General Election Day

• Louisiana — The state holds a hybrid primary where all candidates are listed on the ballot for each seat. The winner is whoever gets a simple majority, but if no candidate breaks 50%, the race goes into a runoff on Dec. 10. It's unlikely any will, as no incumbent is facing serious opposition. Incumbent Republican Senator John Kennedy can expect to keep his seat.

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