(Bloomberg) -- A law professor dubbed ‘Robot Man’ won Tunisia’s presidency by a landslide, but left open the question whether a political outsider can help bridge partisan rifts that have hampered an economic revival in the Arab Spring’s birthplace.
Kais Saied, a previously little-known law expert, beat media mogul Nabil Karoui in Sunday’s run-off vote, clinching 72.7% of ballots, according to the national elections commission. Saied, who was propelled to power by the North African nation’s disenchanted youth, has vowed to be a president “for all Tunisians,” as he promises constitutional changes he says are crucial to complete the 2011 revolution.
But the tide that carried Saied may have a risky undercurrent. Tunisians’ hopes have been dashed before as post-uprising governments have failed to push through badly needed economic changes to tackle issues like youth unemployment that’s double the national average. Now, Saied will have to deal with a new parliament whose focus in the near term will likely be coalition-building, not economic policy.
Revamping the economy was key for voters. Tunisia has struggled to curb inflation, while a series of militant attacks have battered the vital tourism sector. In addition, wrangling between the government and powerful labor unions have made it difficult to push ahead with International Monetary Fund-backed cost-cutting measures.
The country’s sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened by 120 basis points since the first-round presidential vote in September, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
The showdown between outsiders Saied and Karoui, who spent much of the pre-election campaign period in jail on corruption charges he denies, spotlighted that widespread discontent in the nation of almost 12 million. The two beat more than 20 candidates in September’s vibrant first round vote that showcased one of the region’s rare democracies.
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Karoui cast himself as a champion of the poor. Saied, however, offered generalities about democracy and completing the course of the 2011 uprising. That’s left unanswered questions about what he actually plans, beyond a drive to expand parliament and give more political representation outside major cities.
Saied “doesn’t have a clear program,” said political analyst Mondher Thabet, criticizing the professor’s “loose slogans” that he said allowed him to be all things to all people. Tunisia’s parliament sets most domestic policy, with the head of state having a say in foreign affairs, defense and security, although late President Beji Caid Essebsi often blurred the roles.
Saied has also yet to present clear views on foreign issues, including the European Union and the U.S.’s role in the region, nor has he suggested anything more than a “populist and dreamy” idea to address youth unemployment, Thabet said.
The support in the run-off Saied received from Ennahda, the moderate Islamist party that secured the most seats in last week’s fractured parliamentary vote, has stoked suspicions among stauncher secularists. So, too, have some of his conservative social views, including on women’s inheritance -- a touchy issue in a nation that’s struggled since 2011 to agree the role of religion in society.
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Further political upheaval may beckon. Ennahda now faces the struggle of building a governing coalition after Karoui’s rival Heart of Tunisia party, which placed second, refused to collaborate. A fragile administration will make drafting and passing laws even tougher.
“The economic and foreign policy files will be a big obstacle” for the new president, Thabet said.
--With assistance from Paul Wallace.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jihen Laghmari in Cairo at jlaghmari@bloomberg.net;Tarek El-Tablawy in Cairo at teltablawy@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaa Shahine at asalha@bloomberg.net, Michael Gunn
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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