(Bloomberg) -- The frenzy for Beyond Meat Inc. products could push its market share to about one-fourth of the entire meatless meats industry, according to Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Analysts disagree on exactly how much of the alternative protein market Beyond Meat may capture, or how large the market itself may be. However, Damodaran writes the company is poised to build on its early entry and name recognition to capture a sizable share of the market, which he estimates will be a $12 billion industry by 2028.
Bernstein has pegged BYND’s current market share at around 2% and sees an increase to 5% by 2028, while others, like Damodaran, see a bigger impact, with potential market share in the high teens and low 20s. That should happen despite competitive threats from larger companies entering the space, such as former investor Tyson Foods Inc., which announced on Thursday it was making a a half-pea-protein, half-Angus-beef burger.
“I believe that the meatless meat market will evolve like the broader food business, with a few big players dominating, with similar competitive advantages including brand name, economies of scale and access to distribution systems,” Damodaran wrote in a blog post. “I also believe that Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, as front runners in this market, will use their access to capital to scale up quickly.”
Damodaran, who specializes in valuation, added that he believes shares are worth about $47 each. That’s below the lowest Wall Street 12-month price target of $51.10 and less than half of the Street’s $96 average target. The IPO priced at $25 per share on May 1.
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