U.S. stocks fell after a report showed U.S. year-ahead inflation expectations rose for the first time in seven months. The dollar gained and Treasuries fell.
The S&P 500 closed near lows of the day, falling more than 2 per cent. The growth-sensitive Nasdaq 100 posted the steepest losses, dropping just over 3 per cent as Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year rate rising back to 4.5 per cent. Both indexes posted their first weekly declines this month.
Equity markets turned sharply lower after a University of Michigan survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations rose in early October and the long-term outlook also crept up. The uptick is potentially worrisome for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep views anchored. It also follows data a day earlier that showed a key measure of consumer prices accelerated in September to a 40-year high. On Thursday, however, stocks roared back from early losses in one of the biggest reversals on record.
“Yesterday you had this amazing, powerful intraday rally that was completely wrong,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Then you look at the Michigan numbers this morning that’s consistent with what we’re seeing in the economy, and the stock market now is down to reflect that number. That’s correct.”
Corporate America offered some bright spots, with big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. rising after reporting results, while Morgan Stanley fell as equity trading revenue disappointed. UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares gained after the health-care giant beat profit forecasts in the third quarter and raised its outlook for the year.
Earnings next week will provide clues on the strength of a swathe of companies, including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Netflix Inc., Tesla Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc.
In the latest Fed comments, officials suggested they’re ready to hike rates higher than previously planned. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the terminal rate may need to be higher to cool prices. San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said she’s “very supportive” raising to restrictive levels and to between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent “is the most likely outcome.”
Forecasts they released last month showed rates reaching 4.4 per cent by year end and 4.6 per cent next year, from a current target range of 3 per cent to 3.25. Swaps traders have boosted wagers for rate hikes over the past week following strong payrolls and hot inflation readings, with the market leaning toward back-to-back jumbo hikes at the next two meetings and a high above 4.9 per cent next year.
“A lot of investors are looking at inflation to get guidance on what the Fed is going to do, to find the bottom in the market once the Fed pivots,” Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer and president of First American Trust, said in an interview. “But looking at CPI, unemployment, there’s obviously a lot of heat in the economy. Inflation is going to take some time to come down.”
In the U.K., bonds and the pound fell to end another tumultuous week. Gilts slid as Prime Minister Liz Truss confirmed speculation she will U-turn on a planned freeze on corporation tax. The Bank of England ended its emergency bond purchases on Friday, buying £1.45 billion of long-dated and inflation-linked gilts. In the wake of that, 30-year yields rose 23 basis points at 4.78 per cent, after swinging from a drop of over 30 basis points earlier.
Elsewhere, oil posted a weekly loss as inflation-fighting measures and muted Chinese demand soured the market’s outlook, blunting some of the sting from OPEC’s upcoming supply curtailments.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 fell 2.3 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1 per cent
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3 per cent
- The MSCI World index fell 1.3 per cent
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7 per cent
- The euro fell 0.5 per cent to US$0.9729
- The British pound fell 1.2 per cent to US$1.1186
- The Japanese yen fell 1 per cent to 148.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.1 per cent to US$19,177.75
- Ether rose 0.4 per cent to US$1,298.58
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.02 per cent
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.35 per cent
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 4.34 per cent
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7 per cent to US$85.82 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 1.7 per cent to US$1,648.80 an ounce
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