(Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday sales this year will surge 8.5% to 10.5% from 2020 to reach as much as $859 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. 

The forecast from the industry group cites rising incomes and low debt among consumers, as well as retailers’ investments to make sure they’re stocked up in the last quarter of the year. This year’s spending is expected to reach a record high, according to NRF Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay. 

“All categories of retail have performed extremely well, especially those that were most challenged last year that initially fell the furthest,” Shay said on a call with reporters. 

Consumer demand has remained robust in the U.S. in spite of a steady rhythm of price hikes as companies deal with a shortage of workers and a surge in challenges related to freight and raw materials. While NRF noted that Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations have fallen, a rebound or new variant could “sidetrack the current trajectory of spending,” according to a statement from the group.

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