(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is poised for recession most likely in 2023, according to 525 respondents to the Markets Live weekly survey.

Asked when the next recession would start, only 15% said this year. Close to half saw a U.S. recession next year; another 21% flagged 2024 as likely, and 16% saw 2025 or later.

More than twice as many of the survey participants self-identified as financial professionals versus retail investors. Three in five respondents were based in the U.S. or Canada. There was broad agreement between professionals and retail investors on the likely timing of a U.S. recession.

A bit more than half of the total respondents would heed the two-year versus the 10-year yield curve inversion as the most likely warning signal among yield-curve inversions. 

NOTE: The Markets Live survey ran between March 29 and April 1. For more markets analysis, see the MLIV blog.

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