(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Monday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • Many financial markets are already signaling that the U.S. is more likely than not hurtling toward recession. But will they prove prescient or overly fretful?
  • China will work to tackle trade friction with the U.S. this year, Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said in an interview with Chinese state media that followed talks between the nations
  • Italy’s economy is probably in a phase of stagnation not recession, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in a newspaper interview, adding that the country’s deficit will be kept under control
  • In the wake of the Fed’s massive communication campaign following the December FOMC meeting, Bloomberg Economics is revising its forecast to two interest-rate increases in 2019, down from three
  • Millennial women are participating in the American job market at levels last seen in 2000

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Bourke in Sydney at cbourke4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Tracy Withers

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