(Bloomberg) -- Deals including initial public offerings aren’t likely to recover from their doldrums “for a few quarters yet” unless global business confidence returns, according to a review by Swiss bank UBS Group AG.

Corporate actions — M&A, IPOs and additional issuance — rely on business confidence rising and financial conditions easing, UBS strategists led by Gerry Fowler wrote Monday in a report based on more than 20 years of data. Dealmaking has plunged in 2023, with IPOs raising just $127 billion globally this year to date — the lowest since at least 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

It’s notable how broad the recent weakness has become across the three categories of corporate actions, according to UBS strategists. Though they see investor optimism around a soft landing, the strategists expect M&A and IPOs will be on hold until the completion of a “short and sharp” business cycle.

“Global growth is still slowing, and central bank rate cuts in 2024 will be because of weak demand and not just disinflation,” they wrote.

Dealmakers have suffered job cuts as activity has stalled since easy money during the pandemic drove volumes to record highs. Wall Street banks posted their seventh-straight quarter of declines in investment banking fees during the three months ended in September.

There have been $1.9 trillion of pending and completed M&A deals in the year to date, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The last time it was slower was in 2013, when dealmakers raised $1.8 trillion in the same period. 

More than 50% of MSCI industry groups are in their worst M&A phase of the last 23 years, according to UBS. The weak levels are related to tight financial conditions, they said. 

Additional offerings trends are broadly neutral, UBS said. The $262 billion in additional offerings is only slightly above 2022’s total, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Don’t expect the growth in private market assets to spill over into more IPOs, at least in the short term, as private valuations have risen higher than public ones in the last decade, UBS said.

“Many private equity fund managers would find they would be crystallizing a lower valuation if they brought assets to public market,” the strategists added.

--With assistance from Michael Msika.

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