Mar 3, 2022
US$185 Brent oil in view if Russian supply hit persists: JPMorgan
Supply loss from Russia to drive oil prices higher: Black Gold Investors LLC’s Gary Ross
Brent crude could end the year at US$185 a barrel if Russian supply continues to be disrupted, JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote in a note Thursday.
Oil prices have skyrocketed, with Brent crude approaching US$120 earlier Thursday as traders shun Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden is facing calls to ban Russian imports of energy but so far has not imposed full blown sanctions on oil.
Currently, 66 per cent of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, JP Morgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in the note.
In the short term, the scale of the supply shock is so large that oil prices need to reach and stay at US$120 a barrel for months to incentivize demand destruction, the analysts said, assuming there would be no immediate return of Iranian crude barrels.
“As sanctions have widened and the shift to energy security takes on an urgent priority, there will likely be ramifications for Russian oil sales into Europe and the US, potentially impacting up to 4.3 million barrels per day,” the analysts wrote.
The bank maintained its price forecast, which calls for Brent to average US$110 a barrel in the second quarter, US$100 in in the third quarter and US$90 in the fourth quarter. Without a return of Iranian barrels to the market, the bank expects oil prices to average US$115 in the second quarter, US$105 in the third quarter and US$95 by the fourth quarter.