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Jan 9, 2020

Victoria’s Secret is fading into obscurity: Jefferies

An illuminated advertisement is displayed outside a Victoria\'s Secret Stores LLC store, a subsidiary of L Brands Inc., at night in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., on Monday, Aug. 7, 2017. L Brands Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on August 16. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

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Victoria’s Secret lingerie is sinking into irrelevance, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said on Thursday after the company’s parent reported a drop in holiday sales.

L Brands Inc. reported Thursday that quarter-to-date comparable sales at Victoria’s Secret sank 12 per cent, while store traffic was down by the mid-teens -- worrisome signs for a company that’s struggled with changing consumer preferences. Increased promotional activity also crimped margins. Pink, which is the company’s young adult-focused brand, reported that same-store sales plunged by a mid-teens percentage rate.

Konik also said Pink’s weak results implied the brand “is not wanted any longer.” In a meeting with investors last year, L Brands executives touted the brand as a key part of its growth strategy.

L Brands representatives didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment about Konik’s statements. It’s not the first time the analyst has strongly recommended against investing in L Brands.

Despite the report, L Brands shares rose as much as 6.3 per cent on Thursday. Konik said bullish investors may be betting that the performance at Victoria’s Secret and Pink is “so bad it will force a split” of the brand from the better-performing L Brands company, Bath & Body Works.

He said Bath & Body Works results, however, are “not as good as you think.” While comparable sales rose 9 per cent during the holiday period, he highlighted deteriorating margins. This trend is “a canary in the coal mine, as it tells you that the peak of cycle has been reached” for the brand.

Konik rates the shares underperform. He reduced his price target to a Street-low US$12 per share, from US$14. He predicts Victoria’s Secret and Pink will “collapse and start losing money” while Bath & Body Works sales will deteriorate and margins decline. That will result in lower profit and a cut to the dividends, he said.