Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. saw purchase volumes on their cards climb less than expected in the final three months of the year, a sign that historic levels of inflation have begun to put a damper on consumer spending.

Spending on Visa’s cards climbed 1.7 per cent to US$3.01 trillion in the company’s fiscal first quarter, missing the US$3.16 trillion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. At Mastercard, volumes jumped 11 per cent to US$1.73 trillion, also missing estimates.

In some ways, inflation provides a tailwind for Visa and Mastercard, which earn most of their revenue from taking a slice of the fees merchants pay to banks each time a consumer swipes one of their cards at checkout. Still, investors have grown increasingly worried that higher prices will ultimately force consumers to pull back on spending, a move that would crimp revenue for both networks.

So far, both companies have said inflation hasn’t weighed on consumers’ overall spending patterns. Instead, card customers have shifted their spending to lower-cost items or generic brands. The two companies have said they continue to get a boost from spending on travel and dining out with pandemic-related restrictions easing globally.

Still, cross-border volume at Visa rose less than expected. Investors keep a close eye on such transactions because they’re typically more lucrative for the networks than domestic payments.

“As we look at the broader economy, we see the continued recovery of cross-border travel, with volumes up 59 per cent versus a year ago and we’re encouraged by Asia opening up further,” Mastercard Chief Executive Officer Michael Miebach said in a statement announcing his company’s fourth-quarter results earlier Thursday.

Mastercard shares slipped 1.4 per cent to US$377.24 in New York trading, while Visa shares rose slightly to US$228.12 at 4:14 p.m. in late trading after closing at US$224.71.

Visa said it notched US$4.18 billion in earnings in its fiscal first quarter, which ended Dec. 31, an increase of 6 per cent. That translates to US$1.99 a share, which topped the US$1.93 average of analyst estimates. At Mastercard, fourth-quarter profit increased 6 per cent to US$2.53 billion, or US$2.62 a share, surpassing estimates.

Mastercard told investors net revenue for the year is likely to grow by a percentage in the “low teens,” Mastercard said in a presentation posted on its website. Operating expenses, meanwhile, are likely to fall by a percentage in the “mid single digits,” the company said. That’s in line with what analysts are expecting.